Severe Thunderstorm Threat New Jersey
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We are setting up for a rather strange day on Tuesday forecast wise with a sharp cold front that is going to set up just (barely) to the north of Northern New Jersey which puts New Jersey at risk for severe thunderstorm activity Tuesday afternoon. It is going to be one of these fronts dropping down from the north northeast so while temperatures could reach 75 to 80 on Tuesday through much of the state, just north of the boundary temperatures will be falling through the 50s and 40s by late afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has a SEVERE WEATHER THREAT NEW JERSEY forecasting a marginal risk for severe weather.
Severe Thunderstorm Threat New Jersey
Storm Prediction Center Forecast for Tuesday
There could be a few showers running ahead of all this later tonight but much of Tuesday we will be waiting for the front to pass as a wave of low pressure moves along it. Weather models are all a little different in where they set up the warm sector. We went with the GFS weather model which would place the greatest risk for severe weather in Central and Southern New Jersey.
Severe Thunderstorm Threat New Jersey
GFS MODEL FORECAST 1PM TUESDAY
Of course should the frontal boundary be a little further north or slightly delayed, the risk area could extend a little further north into Northern New Jersey and even into the Hudson Valley & New York City. The timing of the front would suggest that areas northeast of these areas are at much lower risk as the colder air arrives earlier. Notice that it is actually cold enough for snow across much of Northern New England! We will adjust the area of the Severe Thunderstorm Threat if we see signs of the front getting either hung up or dropping southward faster than forecast. A faster front would limit the daytime heating and result in a lower risk of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday.
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