Hurricane Watch NW Bahamas Dorian Forecast to Reach Major Hurricane Strength
Dorian has maintained its strength overnight after a burst of strengthening last night. Maximum winds are 105 mph. Dorian should begin another strengthening phase later today along with a gradual turn to the west northwest. Nothing has really changed much in the outlook for Dorian. The turn to the west northwest will be followed by another turn to the west once Dorian moves through the Northwest Bahamas on Sunday. Dorian will likely become a major hurricane later today and remain a major hurricane until it reaches Florida sometime late Monday.
Reconnaissance aircraft is enroute to investigate Dorian and we should have an idea of how strong DoriaIn in is in a few hours. The forecast logic remains unchanged as well. A building high to the northeast of Dorian will build back westward into the Southeast US. This will steer Dorian westward toward Florida and how far west it gets before another turn occurs will be the next forecast challenge. Landfall on the Florida Peninsula won’t occur until sometime late Monday night or early Tuesday morning.
Clearly we know what the risks are at landfall however we should note that Dorian is going to likely move slowly once inland and assuming models are correct with a turn to the north over Florida and toward the Georgia coast, rain could be a huge issue with the GFS forecasting over a foot of rain over virtually all of the Florida Peninsula and extending into the coastal areas of Georgia and South Carolina. We will take a look at this in detail later today when we have the next model cycle all done.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.