Humidity Starts To Rise Heat Thunderstorm Risks Thursday Friday
The day started with reasonable humidity but that is going to change as humidity levels begin to rise today. The dry air mass is moving out and we have a warm front coming up from the south. For the time being there isn’t much going on satellite or radar wise and we expect no worse than partly sunny skies today. Radars aren’t showing much at the moment and we expect it to be rain free today for most of the area. Highs will reach the middle to some upper 80s. Some showers will develop in Southern Pennslyvania and Maryland late this afternoon as that warm front moves northward.
During tonight it turns humid everywhere and there could be a shower or thunderstorm overnight in a few places but no widespread activity. Temperatures overnight will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s except warmer urban center which will be closer to mid 70s. That takes us to Thursday which will hot and humid with sunshine after some early morning leftover clouds. Highs will reach the lower 90s in most places.
Humidity levels will be high and the atmosphere unstable. An upper trough could set off a few scattered thunderstorms late in the afternoon and evening. There is always the chance for a stronger thunderstorm developing but they should be isolated in nature and mostly inland and north in upstate NY.
Friday will be a humid day but we will have more clouds around. There could be some showers and thunderstorms early on as another warm front moves northward and a cold front approaches later in the day. In between it will be very warm with changeable skies and some sunshine. There is some risk for isolated severe thunderstorms developing especially from Central New Jersey southward. Cloud cover will hold temperatures down somewhat so most highs will be in the 80s.
Behind the front, we have another dry air mass. It isn’t much of a cool air mass so temperatures over the weekend will be in the 80s. We will have sunshine both Saturday and Sunday and humidity levels will be on the low side in the 50s and that should make for a warm but comfortably nice weekend. The dew point loop shows the dry air over us over the weekend. It isn’t the most robust dry air mass but it is enough to keep oppressive humidity away at least for a few days.
Next week we will be watching a buiding upper ridge in the Midwest and trying to reach the East Coast. This could bring back heat in a big way with Tuesday being the first day of 90 degree plus highs. Whether we get into the oppressive heat will depend on the ridge and whether some backdoor fronts try to drop southward from Canada. We will be looking closer at that possibility in our long range outlook.
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