EURO Discussion

  • Active Weather Pattern Continues Into Next Week


    Active Weather Pattern Continues Into Next Week trademark

    Active Weather Pattern Continues Into Next Week

    The weather pattern across North America appears to remain very active into next week. One of the things forecasters need to be careful of is one or two runs that show radical changes that more often than not don't wind up happening. It is probably wiser to just let the trend be your friend until such time that mounting evidence suggests something changing. active weather pattern The teleconnections would suggest a minor interruption in the overall weather pattern for a few days beginning this weekend, however today's weather models are suggesting something a bit different. The Pacific North America index goes negative briefly before shooting back positive again. The East Pacific Oscillation index goes positive before it drops negative again. The combination of a strong positive PNA and a strong negative EPO are usually strong indicators for cold and possibly snowy weather in the Eastern US. The persistent deep trough in the East will produce several systems dropping southeast out of Canada. The first one Tuesday goes by to our north and bring heavier snows to upstate NY to New England. We here could see temperatures run toward 50 on Tuesday before the cold front passes and cold air comes in late in the day. The arrival of the cold air could come with a burst of snow tomorrow evening. The next system comes on Thursday and this looks weak but there could be a period of snow with this when it goes by.

    GFS FORECAST THURSDAY CLICK TO ANIMATE

    active weather pattern The GFS takes this weak low to the south Thursday but the European & Nam are a shade further  north with this. It is certainly worth the mention for some snow on Thursday. The more important possibility lies for later Friday and Friday night as the upper trough sharpens. This in some ways is like what we just went through with the GFS model phasing the two jet streams while the European keeps it flatter.

    GFS JET STREAM FORECAST FRIDAY DECEMBER 15, 2017

    active weather pattern Given that we just experienced how weather models can miss the boat on what is actually happening, we need to keep all possibilities open with this until it becomes clear whether this system will phase together or will the southern part of the trough get left behind. Models also point to another possibility and here the European is showing a colder pattern into next week.

    EUROPEAN MODEL SUNDAY DECEMBER 17 2017

    active weather pattern First things first will be Thursday with the lead system which by Thursday morning on the NAM has some snow on our doorstep. The key to this will be whether there is enough room for it to hold together since there will still be a strong storm to the northeast.    

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