EURO Discussion

  • European Model Gfs Model 2 Different Worlds Next Week


    European Model Gfs Model 2 Different Worlds Next Week trademark  

    European Model Gfs Model 2 Different Worlds Next Week

    Weather models are continuing to signal a flip in the weather pattern however it is never easy. The 2 major models go in different directions after the first half of next week. At least both agree that the ridge of high pressure in the east breaks down and a deep trough comes into the Eastern US early next week with some rain finally breaking the dry spell here on Tuesday.

    GFS MODEL TUESDAY OCTOBER 24 2017

    european model gfs

    EUROPEAN MODEL TUESDAY OCTOBER 24 2017

    european model gfs model There are some subtle differences in the European model and the GFS model next Tuesday but the general idea here is the same. Deep trough swings into the Eastern US. Strong upper highs appear with one in the west and the other off the Atlantic coast. From here however the models diverge completely. The GFS eventually lifts out the trough in the East. It also has a completely different profile of what happens in the Atlantic

    GFS MODEL NEXT SATURDAY OCTOBER 28, 2017

    european model gfs model

    EUROPEAN MODEL SATURDAY OCTOBER 28

    european model gfs model The GFS flattens out the Atlantic ridge completely as pressures lower over Greenland.  The European builds and builds and builds the Atlantic Ridge to Greenland which then creates a second deep trough in the Eastern US late next week. This translates to a different temperature profile across the Eastern half of the US.

    GFS MODEL TEMPERATURE ANOMALY SATURDAY OCTOBER 28

    european model gfs model

    EUROPEAN MODEL TEMPERATURE ANOMALY SATURDAY OCTOBER 28

    european model gfs model Which model will be right will hinge on the models view of the development of blocking in the North Atlantic. Ensemble members would lean toward the European idea vs the GFS but remember that weather models have predicted 20 of the last 2 blocking patterns. The volatility large enough in the long range under normal circumstances. It is multiplied tenfold when blocking is being signaled. european model gfs model The bottom line at this point is that temperatures will continue to be warmer than average into Tuesday before the first shot of cool air arrives for the second half of next week. We should see some rain on Tuesday with a cold front and low pressure developing along it. The European would suggest a prolonged rain event into Wednesday. If the European is right the Upper Great Lakes back into Northern Minnesota could see their first snows late next week.

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