Cold Front Brings Showers Tuesday Night Into Wednesday
Noreaster Risks Appear For Columbus Day Weekend
We are still locked inside a very warm air mass across Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England and this is going to last for another day and a half before we see some big changes for the second half of the week. It also could culminate in a nor’easter or some sort of tropical or subtropical like storm developing for the Columbus Day holiday weekend. More on this shortly. In the mean time it is a very warm day with lots of sunshine and the potential for some near record high temperatures. Most highs today will be in the low to mid 80s and it will be only a few degrees cooler later this afternoon and evening along the coast.
SATELLITE WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES
WEATHER RADAR
Some low clouds and fog will develop overnight into Tuesday morning as the atmosphere continues to moisten up. Most lows overnight will be in the upper 50s inland and low to mid 60s coast and warmer urban locations. Tuesday will be very warm and more humid with sunshine (after any low clouds and fog burn off). Highs will once again reach into the 80s with some local record highs possible.
Tuesday night a cold front approaches. Showers and thunderstorms will move east across Pennsylvania and Western New York Tuesday and then reach the coast during Tuesday night. This will be the first significant rainfall in over 2 weeks. Rainfall forecast amounts into Wednesday morning should be in a range of 3/4 inch to an inch or so in most places. We do not anticipate severe thunderstorms with this cold front.
Wednesday morning the front will exit to the east. Any rain inland should be mostly done by daybreak though it might linger a few extra hours at the coast. Wednesday will be a day of decreasing clouds in the afternoon along with a cooler northerly wind. Temperatures Wednesday will probably top in the upper 60s to near 70 but some of that may be leftover from Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning and then temperatures will settle into the 60s.
Much cooler air thanks to building high pressure into Eastern Canada will send temperatures down into the 40s inland by Thursday morning and lower 50s near the coast. Thursday and Friday are going to be very cool days with some sunshine. However high temperatures Thursday will probably only be in the lower 60s and some spots might not make it to 60. Friday at this point looks to be no worse than party sunny with highs generally between 60 and 65 degrees.
Things will get complicated as we head into the weekend. Weather models all show lower than normal pressures off the Southeast US coast especially once that high builds into Eastern Canada. We are going to see some sort of low pressure center develop east of Florida Friday and begin a slow northward climb over the weekend. This scenario is being complicated by a tropical wave in the Central Tropical Atlantic which, at the moment, appears to be a separate entity and will not get involved with this developing low pressure. We also will have energy aloft piling into the Southeastern US and this will likely try to drive the developing and intensifying low northward Friday night and over the weekend. We saw something similar a few weeks ago that brought rain and wind to the Mid Atlantic states. That system was not tropical in nature. This time around we could be dealing with something subtropical or non tropical. Either way it seems that we do have risk for noreaster like conditions developing over the weekend from North Carolina to Southern New England though the specifics at this point are uncertain. We will be monitoring developments in the coming days to see just exactly what we are dealing with. Among the uncertainties is strength and also how far north does this storm system actually get. Right now we will say that clouds and rain are a possibility from late Saturday and lasting possibly into Monday, which is Columbus Day. We will have more on this tonight on the Joe & Joe Weather Show Podcast on youtube at 7:35pm
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Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.
