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Thunderstorms & Severe Weather Risks Tuesday Through Thursday
The work week begins and we see a warm and more humid day ahead. A warm front will be approaching but it seems that we probably won’t see any shower or thunderstorm activity during the dayside along the coast. However inland there could be some scattered showers popping up during this afternoon and evening. That will come overnight as the warm front passes eastward across Upstate New York. There will be some sunshine today but with the approaching warm front there will be a an increase in cloud cover. Most highs today will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s though it could be a little higher in South Jersey and points southward.
SATELLITE WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES
WEATHER RADAR
Tonight the warm front moves eastward and we expect that some areas will see showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm or two though the best chances for this seem to lie from Northeast Pennsylvania and Northern New Jersey east to Long Island and north to the Hudson Valley and Connecticut. Temperatures overnight will hover in the mid 60s inland and lower 70s coast and warmer urban locations.
Tuesday begins what could be 3 consecutive days of severe thunderstorm & flash flood risk. The Storm Prediction Center is indicating a slight risk for severe weather from New Jersey northwestward into Pennsylvania and Western New York as well as north and northeast into the Hudson Valley and Connecticut. A second day of severe weather risk follows Wednesday and looks to be more widespread with slight risk covering just about all of New Jersey and Pennsylvania and extending south into Maryland and Delaware.
A stationary frontal boundary from the Great Lakes to the Northern Mid Atlantic states and waves of low pressure moving along that boundary will be the culprit for multiple days of severe weather risk. Also flash flood risk is elevated especially Wednesday when thunderstorm activity could be more robust than Tuesday. For now we will say Tuesday will be a day of changeable sky conditions and the risk for thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. Highs will be into the 80s but we could see highs reaching 90 degrees South Jersey and points south.
We have a similar outlook for Wednesday. Changeable sky conditions with showers and thunderstorms along with the risk for severe storms. There is local flash flood risk each day this week but Wednesday we see risk rising across New Jersey to Southern New England. At any time this week we could see thunderstorms dump a couple of inches of rain locally in short periods of time creating flood issues but remember that when it comes to convection there is a randomness about it. Some see more than others, and some may not see much though over a three day period it is likely that it will be evenly distributed over time. Thursday brings another round of showers thunderstorms and severe weather risks but we could see weather conditions improve for Friday and the Labor Day holiday weekend is shaping up to be nice and dry possibly for all 3 days.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.