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Severe Thunderstorm Tornado & Flash Flood Risk
Today & Tonight As Front Approaches
Get ready for the next round of potent weather that will be moving through parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic states today. The Storm Prediction Center has increased the risk area to “Enhanced” or a 30 percent chance for severe thunderstorms. The enhanced risk zone reaches just about to New York City and covers almost all of New Jersey and Pennsylvania south to Maryland and Delaware. Slight risk flanks the enhanced risk area and that reaches up into Western Connecticut and upstate New York.
For the second time in three days we have elevated tornado risk at 5 percent. It sounds like a low number but we are talking about very small scale convection here, often times affecting only a handful of square miles. A few could spin up during the peak thunderstorm activity which will be mid after into this evening. Ahead of that we will have some patchy downpours around. The sun might also pop through and make an appearance. Highs today will reach into the 80s in most places.
Heavy rainfall is going to be an issue. Rainfall forecast amounts of 1.25 to 1.50 inches in the broad brush forecast but however when it comes to thunderstorms, local amounts can sometimes be double the amounts and there will be variability with some places seeing more rain than others. Local flash flood risks are elevated and flood watches are posted for much of New Jersey to New York City. Additional flood watches may be needed later today.
SATELLITE WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES
WEATHER RADAR
We will see showers and some downpours overnight into the first part of Wednesday because the cold front will not pass through until perhaps midday to early afternoon. This leaves the door open for another chance for showers and the potential for isolated severe storms. Later Wednesday afternoon weather conditions should begin to improve from west to east with the front offshore.
We will see skies clear out Wednesday night and dew points will come crashing down into the 50s. This will leave us with nice weather days Thursday and Friday. Both days will feature sunshine and highs into the 80s with low humidity. We may be able to sustain this into the weekend before we start dealing with the next cold front. That may not come until the middle of next week!
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Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.