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Heat Begins To Abate Severe Weather Risk
& Heavy Rain Monday & Tuesday
Happy Independence Day to everyone and do mind the hot and humid conditions and stay sufficiently hydrated. The good news is that we have past the peak of the heatwave and temperatures are going be trending lower over the next couple of days. Highs today will be generally in the mid to upper 90s with 100 degree readings possible South Jersey and Southern Pennsylvania southward.
Another upper trough arrives late today and that is likely to set off some thunderstorms. You can see the system on the satellite loop moving east across the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Risk times are likely to be between 3pm and 10pm. The Storm Prediction Cente ris indicating a large area of slight risk from New York Citry and Northern New Jersey south and west into Pennsylvania to North Carolina. Enhanced risk is indicated from northeast Virginia to Southwest New Jersey and this is where temperatures are going to be over 100 degrees for highs.
SATELLITE WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES
WEATHER RADAR
Once the storms are done we will cool off a bit and Sunday morning lows will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Sunday sees an important cold front approaching. We are likely to have more in the way of cloud cover though there will be some sun into the early afternoon. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s at worst so we are finally done with the extreme 100 degree highs.
This cold front is important because it will be slowing down and stalling out overhead. This is going to initially bring showers and thunderstorms later Sunday afternoon and evening. We do have some severe weather risk being indicated by the Storm Prediction Center on the order of marginal to slight risk from Northern New Jersey and Northeast Pennsylvania southward where the risk increases in Southern New Jersey and Southern Pennsylvania.
This front is going to stall out and we may have to wait for Wednesday before the rain to be gone. Showery rains and rumbles of thunder will be likely Sunday night into at least Tuesday dayside. Over the course of Monday and Tuesday we could see up to several inches of much needed rain and there is the increasing risk we could be dealing with some flash flooding issues. Temperatures will be much lower, probably no higher than the 70s to near 80 degrees for highs Monday and Tuesday. We will be monitoring this weather system for early next week since when it comes to convection this time of year, you can broad brush a rain forecast but locally higher amounts of 50 percent or more is certainly possible.
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Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.