Winter Storm Warnings Weather Models Remain On Course
Winter Storm Warnings Weather Models Remain On Course
Everything we have looked at with weather models remains on course as this major Atlantic Ocean storm begins revving up off the Southeast US Coast. A NOAA plane is scheduled to arrive this evening which will give weather models extra data when we see them tonight. As far as what we have seen this afternoon there has been very little change in the overall picture. The European model which was the one model that was still not in line with the others has now joined the party by doubling its precipitation amounts to come in line with the others. At this stage we are now just waiting for all this to get underway tonight. Whiteout conditions have been occurring in parts of the Southeast US Coast. Take a look at these observations with all of Southeast South Carolina reporting moderate to heavy snow!
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS N Charleston HVY SNOW 29 23 78 N14 30.04F VSB 1/4 WCI 18 Waterfront Prk N/A 27 26 96 N7 29.88F WCI 19 Mount Pleasant SNOW 28 27 93 CALM 30.05S VSB 1/2 Johns Island SNOW 27 25 93 CALM 30.03S VSB 1/4 Pinopolis N/A 27 25 93 N15 30.01F WCI 15 Moncks Corner SNOW 25 23 93 N9 30.06F VSB 1/2 WCI 15 Summerville LGT SNOW 27 23 86 N7 30.08F VSB 1 WCI 19 Beaufort MCAS SNOW 26 25 96 N13 30.04F VSB 1/2 WCI 15 Beaufort Arpt SNOW 27 25 93 N7 30.03F VSB 1/2 WCI 19 Hilton Head Is SNOW 28 27 93 N7 30.05F VSB 1/2 WCI 21 Walterboro SNOW 27 23 86 N6 30.07F VSB 1/4 WCI 20 Allendale LGT SNOW 25 23 93 N7 30.06F WCI 17
On the satellite loop this afternoon you can see the cloud signature of a very intense storm that is developing with the comma shape look. The northern energy continues to swing around across the Great Lakes and the north northeast motion is underway. High clouds from the the system are already overhead and they will thicken up this evening. Radars will begin to load up shortly to the southeast.
SATELLITE LOOP
REGIONAL RADAR
Snow will overspread the area from the south and southeast overnight and it will only get so far west into Eastern Pennsylvania. The western edge of the snow should make to west of Scranton & Harrisburg in Pennsylvania. The heavy snow will being to arc westward into the coastal areas of Virginia to Southern New England during the early morning hours.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SNOW FORECAST
The map above shows the National Weather Service digital snow forecast amounts from this storm. Below is my forecast map from earlier today which remains unchanged. Bear in mind that the tight nature of the gradient between 1 inch and 6 inches. The convective nature of the snow plus banding that will develop will create wide variations in snow amounts. Thundersnow is possible over Long Island and Southeast New England.
The very latest NAM model is out and it shows the intense extratropical cyclone off the coast of the Carolinas and the track that it is forecast will bring near blizzard conditions with heavy snow and near zero visibility over coastal areas from New Jersey to Long Island & Southeast New England as winds will gust to 50-60 mph at times.
NAM MODEL 6AM THURSDAY
Fortunately the fast movement will probably prevent snow amounts from getting out of hand. The snow will end from southwest to northeast during the afternoon and evening on Thursday. The coldest of the Arctic air masses we have seen will be in for Friday into Sunday and below zero readings are likely Saturday and Sunday morning. Many areas on Friday will see highs only in the single digits and low teens.
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