winter storm threat

Winter Storm Threat Long Island Increases

Winter Storm Threat Increases For Late Week

One of the things I leaned a long time ago was when all three models show the same thing, its a pretty good bet that it is likely going to happen. This is one of those rare times when all three models picked up on the idea of a major winter storm and as each model run has gone by, they have not waivered at all. The European, GFS, and Canadian all have remarkable consistency from tun to run. All pretty much have the same idea of snow on the order of a foot or more from Washington to Boston. What could possibly go wrong with the forecast? Well actually quite a bit could go wrong. I don’t think the issue is a storm track to the west or inland at this point. I think if there is any risk it would be a track a little further south and east. But I have to say the last 3 or 4 runs have seen the track clustered around a very close area without much variation.



winter storm threat

winter storm threat

The key to all of this will be the delicate balance between the northern jet stream which holds in the cold air and the strong southern stream. Too strong in the south and it lifts up west..too weak and it doesn’t left up at all. This is that combination right now that yields a big Mid Atlantic/Northeast US snowstorm. Cold air holds..southern system strengthens as it moves underneath and offshore the coast. Models favor rapid deepening. This would be a powerful noreaster with gales, coastal flooding, and beach erosion among other things.

Winter Storm Threat GFS

winter storm threat


So where do we go from here? Well first things first is the local forecast for the first part of the work week for New York City/Long Island which is very cold and dry. Snow squalls have already passed through this morning and now its very cold with temperatures in the 20s. Meteorologist Geoff Bansen has more with the FiOS1 News weather broadcast for Long Island.

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Now with regards to the longer term here is the latest GFS weather video analysis from the overnight model run.








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