Winter Storm Possible Wednesday Into Thursday Large Uncertainties Remain
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Winter Storm Possible Wednesday Into Thursday Large Uncertainties Remain
We addressed the Monday storm system in a prior post which you can access here. Now it is time to take a look at the potential winter storm that has been the subject of endless conversations, distortions, unauthorized meteorology, and all other sorts of nonsense. Let’s begin with Tuesday as high pressure will be building in from the north. This will bring lots of sunshine but it will be a cold day with a gusty wind. Highs will just be in the 30s. Tuesday night probably starts clear and then clouds arrive late at night.
Temperatures Tuesday night will be cold with most lows in the mid teens to lower 20s. This is important in setting up Wednesday with as much cold air as possible. With the high to the north, low level cold air will drain southward on north northeast winds. This takes us to Wednesday with thickening clouds and snow developing from south to north as the day wears on.
We have been watching weather models over the last few days showing a lot of consistency from run to run. Overnight was no different. In fact if there is any trend here, it is that the system is a little further south with every run. Notice the rather sharp cut off in the middle Hudson Valley to Central New England. Naturally the forecast struggle zone lies right along the immediate coast from Long Island to Coastal New Jersey. Precipitation in whatever form being snow inland and snow that changes to sleet and rain and then back to snow coast will continue overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning.
As far as amounts are concerned, the weather prediction center shows in their long range for Wednesday a very high probability of at least an inch which shows there is high confidence for accumulating snow for just about all areas from the Northern Mid Atlantic to Southern New England. I do not do double digit theatrics here. A sensible approach to this is to recognize that yes this could be a sizeable snow producer. That would mean a rather large area of the potential for 6 inches or more that covers much of the area indicated in the zone of 50-70% or higher.
For more on Wednesday’s storm along with complete weather coverage, it is available on my subscription platform on Patreon.
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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.
