White Christmas Possibilities Slim For Now
White Christmas Possibilities Slim For Now
Long Range Pattern Confusing
As we enter Christmas Week the long range outlook to be honest remains rather confusing and to be honest, a little strange. There is absolutely no consistency with the models at all. Differences grow the further out in time we go. Some models have ridges in the same places other models have troughs. The mean flow is different on the European model verses the GFS verses the Canadian. Frankly I’m not quite at all sure where this all going in the next couple of weeks. This probably opens the door for a surprise somewhere along the line which will not show up until we get to the short range.
The first disagreement comes with Thursday as low pressure comes in from the west. Frankly I’m not exactly impressed with this and in fact the GFS model has gone much weaker with this system overnight. The European model has a more developed system in the northern part of the jet stream and produces a strong wave/cold front scenario for Thursday and Thursday night.
Naturally there has to be one model that goes the storm nor’easter route and today’s Canadian takes that particular award with snow across much of the interior northeast!
Now we adventure over to Christmas and of course the inevitable white Christmas questions have already come up (they actually began back in October!). Now we have the Canadian model showing some time of deepening rain storm for Christmas Day. Christmas Eve at least looks dry and reasonable.
Of course the European has the same storm 1000 miles to the west of the Canadian weather model.
The GFS model on the other hand is going in a new direction and a flip from the prior run as it shows cold air coming down out of Canada as low pressures develop to our south.
Frankly a few things have to happen for a White Christmas (or White Christmas night) which makes it rather improbable but not necessarily impossible. There just seems to be so much going on that it is hard to get a grasp of where we are going beyond a few days. Look at the difference between the GFS and the European at Day 10.
Frankly I have no idea where this is all going. One thing is that the GFS has caught on to the European colder idea for the day after Christmas and has delayed the ridge building in the east by at least a day. The European does not seem to want to go to the ridge in the east idea. I’m trying to get some clues from the longer term teleconnection indices. I have been leaning to the idea that the North Atlantic Oscillation may go negative again during the first couple of weeks of January. The Atlantic Oscillation which is positive at the moment trends somewhat lower toward months end but not exactly inspiring. The last day of the GFS has a humongous deep trough out in the west which would mean a mild start to the new year.
There is no cold air flow with this look. In fact for winter weather lovers this is a pretty ugly upper air pattern. Given the model differences are so sharp I really have very low confidence in the outlook going forward in either direction. Back to looking at the next 3 or 4 days and let the long range play out however it plays out.
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