Weekend Weather Not Look Promising Next Week More Changes Trend To Colder
At least we enjoyed a beautiful day of weather today with lots of sunshine, temperatures in the 60s and a nice breeze from the northwest. Low pressure is in Eastern Canada and the cold front is offshore and moving away. This sets up for a nice night of clear skies and chilly temperatures. Lows will be in the 40s with 30s in the usual colder spots north and west of the coast. It looks like we are going to stay above frost levels inland though most inland areas have already have seen their first killing frost. The satellite is quiet and clear.
Thursday is going to be another winner of a day with wall to wall sunshine and temperatures reaching the mid to upper 60s. Friday sees a disturbance going by to the north with some clouds across upstate NY & Northern New England while a few patchy clouds will come into the mix from the south. Between the two we will call for a mix of sun and clouds with high temperatures in the 60s.
Saturday morning will probably start with some sunshine but clouds will be increasing rather quickly as low pressure comes out of the Gulf of Mexico and heads for the Tennessee Valley. This isn’t any kind of powerhouse low because the upper support with this is weakening as it moves northeast. This will bring an area of rain northeastward. The primary low looks like it will go west of the Appalachians. That might bring a little rain here late in the day Saturday and some rain Saturday.
With the warm front moving northward we will likely be in the 50s to near 60 Saturday with an onshore wind. Sunday we are looking at showers into the afternoon as that warm front tries to move northward. This could create a wide range in temperatures Sunday with 50s north of the warm front and mid to upper 60s to the south.
Tropical moisture is in the mix here despite the fact that the system isn’t going to develop into anything impressive from the standpoint of wind. Rainfall amounts will be north of that warm frontal boundary on the order of a couple of inches possible across Pennsylvania into interior Southern New England with lesser amounts of a half in or less as you head closer to the coast and from the Southern half of New Jersey southward. If the low tracks further southeast it would make for a raw wetter solution out of this and we can’t rule out the possibility of a flatter wave further south and east. Rains should come to an end later in the day Sunday or by Sunday evening.
Some differences develop early next week as we will have to deal with another cold front approaching on Tuesday with colder air behind it. The GFS has a broad looking trough that sweeps a cold front through here on Tuesday with some showers followed by a rather cold air mass (for this time of year) coming in for the second half of the week. Other weather models argue for a sharper looking trough delaying the fronts arrival until Wednesday with showers likely followed by the colder air for Thursday and Friday. We are talking about a one day or so delay here. Weather models like the European delay it even further holding the trough further west and not bringing the colder air in until late Thursday or Friday. The overall pattern just looks like late October early November weather with nothing special here. It is just the autumn season simply rolling along from day to day.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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