Weekend Storm Threat Hinges On Polar Vortex
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Overnight weather models continue to focus on the possibility of low pressure developing just off our coastline this weekend. Actually in some ways the systems of the last week are fairly similar. We saw the explosive development last weekend result in fierce winds and snow well north. Then Monday we saw up to 6 inches of snow fall in northern areas of the Hudson Valley and much of Southern New England. Now we have another system coming down from the north for this weekend with a lot of uncertainty remaining in the upper air pattern
Weekend Storm Threat
NAM MODEL SATURDAY AFTERNOON
The NAM model which is not that far off from the Euro model from last night shows a rather bullish scenario in that the upper low tracks south and east of New York City forcing storm development off the Delaware coast Saturday afternoon. More than likely it would be a rain changing to snow situation because of the time of year and it would set up for a nighttime wet snow event. This at least is the NAM’s point of view overnight.
Weekend Storm Threat
EURO MODEL SATURDAY EVENING
The Euro model shows the same idea only a little faster and the time frames here are off by 6 hours. The issue here on the Euro model is the structure of the upper low which is not as deep as the NAM and a little further along (more progressive). It suggests some rain to wet snow Saturday during the day into Saturday night (who cares if it is during the day). and then done. The upstream system on the Euro model is deeper than the NAM. If this is correct it forces the east coast system to be less deep and further along. So that will probably be the key to all this.
Weekend Storm Threat
EURO MODEL UPPER AIR
The GFS model overnight was so progressive that it isn’t even a factor at all as the weather system just moves along and we turn very cold this weekend but mostly dry.
Once again we may have a situation of some model starting out early with bullish storm scenarios only to come way back to something completely different. There is too much energy running around. Some times they phase, sometimes they don’t. We defer to the next model run. One piece of good news as far as I’m concerned is that once this cold air mass pulls out, it looks to moderate some next week with nothing too extreme. I’m frankly getting a little tired of all the cold weather and would like a nice dry normal stretch for a change of pace.
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