The weekend forecast for days hinged on whether the gfs was going to be right showing a surface low tracking up the coast with an area of rain. The European and NAM have both been screaming no. Last night’s European and NAM model runs continued to scream now and finally today, the GFS is abandoning the low up the coast idea and shows a weakening area of rain moving northward. It seems to me that we will probably see no rain at all to speak of other than maybe a passing brief shower.
There is a large area of rain today across the Middle Atlantic States but the models are all showing the same general idea. The upper support with this is not all that impressive to begin with and over time that upper support begins to move west southwestward instead of lifting north or northeastward. The strong mean ridge in the east is just way too dominant and unrelenting.
The result is the rain area begins to slowly fall apart. By Sunday morning this model is showing some light rain into Delaware and Maryland but not even into Southern New Jersey by Sunday morning and the area continues to weaken as Sunday moves on. The other models are even less impressive with this and it is quite possible that none of the rain survives as it moves northward.
By Monday morning the area has really shrunk away. I think it is a good bet that most if not all areas from Central New Jersey northward don’t see a drop. Meanwhile the model does try to develop a low in the Gulf of Mexico that moves north northeast and it is possible that this could be tropical in nature. However shearing is strong and conditions are not all that favorable for development of this as the GFS wants to bring into the Florida Panhandle.
The weekend forecast will probably be dry from the standpoint of rain though the onshore flow and the leftover southern moisture will probably mean a good deal of cloud cover Saturday night through Monday morning which means seeing the lunar eclipse is going to be a big problem in these parts. Clouds are likely to keep temperatures down in the upper 60s and low 70s on Sunday though I think there will be some sun on Saturday. The next cold front looks to pass Tuesday night but as with all these fronts lately, it doesn’t appear like there will be much with it. Another big high building to the north follows with cooler air for the middle and late part of next week. Still no big rains in sight. The streak may go to 16 days at least.
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