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Weekend Dry Cold Snow Sunday Night & Again Tuesday
We are seeing a cold front move through this morning with lots of clouds and showers however the front will be passing eastward this morning and offshore. We should see improving weather conditions later today with clouds giving way to sunshine and a strengthening wind from the northwest. Highs today will be in the lower 50s this morning and then temperatures should begin to ease this afternoon as colder air starts coming in. Winds will be gusting to 30 mph or more through the afternoon and into tonight.
Regional and local radars this morning are ashowing showers moving across Eastern Pennsylvania. Weather models have underdone the extent of the shower activity and it looks as if they will continue to slide northeastward this morning. It might take a little longer for the front to clear coastal areas but it should get there by afternoon.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
It looks like a pretty good weekend overall with mostly clear breezy and cold conditions tonight. By morning lows will be in the upper teens to mid 20s. The weekend looks good through the daytime Sunday with sunshine Saturday and arriving clouds on Sunday. Highs both days will be in the 30s.
Sunday evening brings a weak front with a weak wave developing on it. This should be nothing more than a period of snow with a coating to perhaps as much as an inch or two. The NAM does some slight enhancement of the precipitation with the weak low offshore and I suppose it is possible that someone could outperform slightly here. Once that is done it is on to the system for Tuesday.
We continue to watch the system for Tuesday evolve and above is the GFS model from yesterday for Tuesday morning verses the overnight GFS model which shows snow arriving faster and getting here before daybreak Tuesday.
One of the takeaways from the overnight model runs is that the possibility of a secondary is diminishing. The upper air for a strengthening secondary low is just not that supportive. Therefore I’m thinking that while snow gets in faster while it is still cold enough aloft, the warm air could wind up moving northward faster with a change over to sleet and the rain to follow. So the Question for Tuesday is how much snow falls in the handful of hours before the changeover takes place later Tuesday from south to north. It is about the front end thump. European and Canadian models are warmer with all this. None of this gets resolved now. We are still in the period of model adjustment here. In the end it turns to rain and much of this gets washed away late Tuesday and Tuesday night when rain or mixed precip inland comes to an end. Weather conditions improve on Wednesday. We will dive deeper into things later today.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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