We are seeing a cold Sunday in the wake of yesterday’s cold front and upper trough. However this is a quick shot of cold air that will start pulling out tonight. Winds will be easing and shifting more to the west late today and that will help send temperatures up toe middle and upper 30s in most places this afternoon. Skies on the whole will be partly to mostly sunny as there are few clouds on the satellite and the radar obviously is taking a break. Tonight we will see warmer temperatures on that west breeze so lows Monday morning will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s under clear skies.
Warmups between air masses this time of year tend to have some room to run thanks to the slowly strengthening sun. Add a west wind to the mix and you can see temperature jumps of 10 to 15 degrees from day to day. This is not unusual. It is not unusual to see temps near 70 one day and snow the next especially in March. We aren’t going to 70 Monday but we will see highs in the low to mid 50s under partly to mostly sunny skies. We might even see highs finish above the forecast ranges.
After Monday we will turn our attention to the next 2 (or possibly 3) storm systems that our headed. Actually this pattern began with last Thursday’s storm system. Each one is flattening the upper high off the Southeast US coast and on the other side to the north we watch cold air building in Western Canada and gradually spreading out eastward. More on this in a moment. Tuesday’s low tracks to our west so look for rain to develop Tuesday morning and last into early Wednesday. This storm is weaker than last Thursday so we don’t expect any wind issues. Highs Tuesday will be in the 50s.
As the first low moves away Wednesday we will be in some leftover cold air before another front passes later in the day. Clouds will give way to sunshine Wednesday and it will be warm with most highs reaching the mid to upper 60s! It will be a short lived warm up because the next round of changes begin Wednesday night and that leads us to a storm system at the end of the week. We will chill down into the 20s Wednesday night under clear skies and a north wind. Thursday look for sunshine and arriving clouds with highs mostly in the 30s.
Now comes Friday’s storm system. Tuesday’s front stalls on the southern end in the Gulf of Mexico and a wave develops on that front. Low pressure will be tracking northeast into Eastern Kentucky and then weaken as it pushes into West Virginia. A secondary low will develop off the coast and then head east northeast. All the models show this happening. With regards to the issues of snow ice and rain we have that cold high in Eastern Canada pressing southward with low level cold air damming southward as the graphic shows. Ultimately this will hinge on how fast the primary weakens and how fast the secondary takes over. This will determine the ultimate final positions of the snow ice rain lines. The GFS model shows the coldest solution with a faster primary secondary development. The European and Canadian models show the same idea but taking longer to get there and have the low and the snow and ice lines a little further north. Often times with cold highs in Eastern Canada cold air is more important particularly if it is arctic air. For now we will simply say that there is the likelihood of snow ice and rain on Friday and leave it at that until we can work out these variables. There are hints of another storm system to follow up this one to finish off the month of February and start of March but we will focus our attention on the two systems before it.
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.