Weather Pattern Change Signs Grow Stronger
The weather pattern change idea seems to be gaining steam and it appears to get underway as we head into January. Still some caution is definitely called for and I’m not ready to shout from the roof tops of imminent pattern change. However if this is the opera, the fat lady can be heard clearing her throat as the curtain is getting ready to be raised.
Both the GFS and the European are on this track and the idea are supported but the ensemble members. The GFS and European come at it a little differently with the European waging war on the polar vortex from a strong ridge in Europe building northwestward to the North pole.
What this means at least from a practical perspective is that temperatures will be trending back toward something resembling seasonal as we get closer 2 and beyond New Years. If this is indeed the beginnings of the pattern flip, it will probably take a couple of weeks to play out. The big question will be whether this is just a temporary window of a week to 10 days (ala February 1983) or is this something different? Is the el nino is at the tipping point where it no longer exerts an unrelenting dominance in the pattern? Is the mean trough going to set up favoring cold and snow in the east or is it going to set up in a different way. These are all among many questions that are going to have to be answered assuming that pattern change looms in the next 2 to 3 weeks. The evidence today certainly boosts the argument that the current pattern is about to run its course.
This is this morning’s weather video on the overnight GFS and European model runs.
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