Weather Pattern Change Imminent Per Models
The weather pattern change process continues per the long range model runs today and I think it will offer some opportunities for things to happen as we head into the first part of January. We are now seeing the models all with the similar idea of a Scandinavian block occurring (Northwest Europe to the North Pole) which causes the Arctic regions to warm and allows for the displacement of cold air south. For it to become imminent JOESTRADAMUS being a rather cautious sort of creature is waiting for the models to be inside 5 days and let the predictive become reality.
Both the GFS weather model and the European both have similar ideas though the models differ in how they all get there and this is going to be interesting for sure to see how it all plays out. Both models show the ridging in Western European though the GFS has stronger blocking developing through day 10. The European argues for a longer process as it does not cut off a storm off of southern European like the GFS does. It may get it there a little later but at this point the ideas are similar enough. Still caution is advised to read too much into this too early especially in terms of specifics.
The ensembles today all seem to be on the same page with the operational runs in that they all show the changes over Europe and Asia that precipitate the changes over the Arctic and North America.
You can see the blocking high developing on both the GEPS and the GEFS. Models differ in the strength of the southeast ridge. The southeast ridge is a double edge sword. Too strong and it floods the east with warm air. Not strong enough and you have cold air overpowering the flow in the east which keeps weather systems to the south. It would seem to me that the latter is probably not the way to go. A weak southeast ridge seems unlikely given how strong it has been and perhaps a compromise is in order here between the models regarding this. Still this is another element to the equation that needs to be considered as all of this plays out.
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We are still a good week away from seeing the process begin and it will be critical over the next several days to see this idea on the models continue to gain traction. In order to proclaim imminent pattern change on a practical level, as stated earlier, we want to actually see it begin and watch it all happen. The models seem convinced. Now it has to become a reality and that may be the more difficult part.
Meanwhile through New Years, several events will be playing out as the super warm pattern begins to slowly weaken after this week. We all know by now that we will see some much needed rain on and off Tuesday into Christmas Eve with the prospect of record breaking temperatures again and a snowless Christmas for all of the Northeast. Nothing on that side of the equation looks to change at this point. Remember folks weather pattern change is a process and not an event. Where weather pattern change takes us in the end may not necessarily be a place you like.
With regards to the overnight models here is my video analysis for comparison.
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