weather pattern

Weather Pattern Change Arrives Next Week

Weather Pattern Change Arrives Next Week

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Weather Pattern Change Arrives Next Week

Over the last 4 or 5 days we have seen weather models indicating a change in the upper air pattern coming for the last week of October. We decided to wait a bit before jumping on to the band wagon just to make sure that this was indeed the case. Today’s model runs have now brought it close enough that the confidence level is high. For the last 5 weeks we have been in a ridge in the east trough in the west scheme across North America and it is about to reverse after this week. The ridge in the east will pop up one more time this week keeping things very dry. The cool shot we are seeing today into Wednesday will give way to a warm up and it will be dry for the rest of this week and likely through this weekend. After next weekend everything changes.

GFS WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE SATURDAY OCTOBER 21 UPPER AIR

weather pattern

Saturday’s jet stream map above shows the ridge in the East in place with the trough in the west and the strong Pacific Jet stream crashing into the west coast. From here things begin to radically change. The big upper low over Alaska shifts westward weakening the Pacific Jet stream. A ridge begins to build in the west with a corresponding deep trough swinging through the Eastern US. This will open up the spigots of colder air to begin to move southward into the United States.

weather pattern

The change to the colder pattern should come with an opportunity for some much needed rain next Tuesday though the details are yet to be worked out. Once this change is complete the question then becomes whether it holds or not for any important length of time. It seems there could be room for another big trough toward the end of the month and perhaps this one might bring the first snows to the areas in the upper Midwest and the interior Northeast

weather pattern

Of course warm ups in between troughs are likely but they will be short lived. At least the pattern switches to something that produces more variability after this week. Whether it continues as we head into November remains to be seen.

 

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

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