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Weather Models Zeroing In On Early Next Week

Weather Models Zeroing In On Early Next Week

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Weather Models Zeroing In On Early Next Week

Over the last several days weather models have been zeroing in on the possibility of another snow threat early next week. Weather models are clearly now zeroing in on a storm developing off the Southeast Coast of the US and heading up the Eastern Seaboard. I think we are at the point now that we can say something is going to happen somewhere from Virginia to New England inclusive. The hows and whys are still in question.

GFS WEATHER MODEL MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

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weather models

The GFS weather model above has been remarkably consistent for the last 8 model runs. There has been a gradual shift to the left closer to the coast and this means that one at least has to consider the possibility of a coast hugger which would bring rain to coastal areas at some point. But why are models so consistent all of a sudden? Up until now we have been dealing with smaller systems that have been running around. Each has an impact on the other. However when the atmosphere is telegraphing a large system, there are fewer players on the table and therefore the options of different outcomes is reduced. Such is the case here.

GFS UPPER AIR FORECAST FOR TUESDAY

weather models

Now each model has this deep trough and each model handles things a little differently. The European model and the Canadian model are even deeper (more intense) with the upper feature than the GFS model

EUROPEAN WEATHER MODEL TUESDAY MARCH 14TH

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CANADIAN MODEL FOR TUESDAY MARCH 14

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Both the Canadian model and the European model would imply a major upper air storm diving southeast toward the Middle Atlantic Coast. The result on their surface reflections show large storms just offshore.

CANADIAN WEATHER MODEL TUESDAY MARCH 14TH

weather models

EUROPEAN WEATHER MODEL TUESDAY MARCH 14TH

weather models

The Canadian weather model is the most intense with the surface low. The European gets there 12 hours later as it is a bit slower. The look on both the surface and aloft all suggest a major winter storm but remember track is key regarding what happens whether it be snow or snow with a change to rain. Given the structures of the upper air on all three models an out to sea solution seems to be remote.

EUROPEAN WEATHER MODEL WEDNESDAY MARCH 15

weather models

We think that with the presence of a strong ridge in the west building northeastward and a strong Atlantic Ridge building northwestward traps the upper air energy in between. What will impact track will be the dominance of either ridge. One being weaker would change track. A weaker Pacific ridge or Atlantic ridge would change the dynamics of the system. Right now it seems all the weather models are lined up together that both ridges will be strong.

The plan ahead is to see what the next 4 runs of models show us. If the consistency continues through Friday night then I think we may be in position to make an early call of some sort on Saturday. Until then we continue to watch how models evolve and progress over the course of the next 2 days.

Weather Models Zeroing In On Early Next Week

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