Weather Models: Warm This Week, No Rain Through Thursday

Weather Models: Warm This Week, No Rain Through Thursday

In case you missed it my Winter 2015-2016 Forecast came out last night and it has my prediction on what I think the winter will be like.

This first full work week of November holds no mysteries ahead. At least through Thursday we should enjoy a fair amount of sunshine each day. Today will be the coolest of the next 3 days with most highs in the 60s. High clouds from a weather system to the south my get in here especially across Southeast Pennsylvania and Southern New Jersey and that could hold temperatures down a bit there. But satellite and radar shows the rain to the south staying south and not making it into the forecast region.

monday
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/vis-animated.gif

 

Once that southern system goes by there really isn’t anything of consequence until a cold front approaches on Friday. Tuesday sunshine should be everywhere with highs reaching 70. There will be a bit of an onshore wind off the ocean and that will keep the temperatures somewhat in check. Otherwise with a west wind we would go to 80 and record highs. But that isn’t going to happen.

tuesday

Wednesday will be another day of sunshine with just a few passing clouds. The long nights might produce some low clouds especially along coastal areas so that is something to consider but even if that happens they should burn off without much difficulty. I’m thinking Wednesday may be the warmest day this week.

wednesday

Beyond Wednesday, Thursday looks okay however the GFS and other weather models are picking up on a small coastal disturbance. I’m not sure how real it is as it looks small and weak but it could be a cloud producer so we may have to include that in the equation Thursday night into Friday. Later Friday a cold front comes along with temperatures in the 70s ahead of it. Not much shower activity is expected late Friday or Firday night. Earlier weather models were suggesting the front slowing down and stalling but now it seems that the strong ridge in the east is going to simply weaken that front as it goes by and colder drier air comes in for the weekend.

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