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Weather Models Showing Blocking Next Week

Weather Models Showing Blocking Next Week

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Weather Models Showing Blocking Next Week

Looking ahead to next week weather models for the last number of days have been indicating a strong blocking pattern developing across the North Atlantic. This has implications longer term for the first part of May. A blocking signature anytime of year can mean a cold wet stormy period of weather and the middle of spring is no exception to this. With all the weather models going the blocking route it is a call to pay attention.

WEATHER MODELS SHOW BLOCKING EUROPEAN & GFS FORECAST THURSDAY MAY 4TH

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These maps are for one week from today and both weather models (GFS & EUROPEAN) are virtually identical. The big high builds over Greenland and forces a strong Atlantic jet stream along and north of 40 degrees north. To the west a deep trough dives southward into the Mississippi Valley while a strong ridge cuts off the Pacific jet stream and builds into Northwest Canada.

WEATHER MODELS SHOW STORM MOVING UP WEST SIDE OF APPALACHIANS

CLICK TO ANIMATE

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Everything is set in motion on Monday as a cold front moves through at night with some showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday and Wednesday dry air and high pressure builds in as all the energy piles to the west. Models then swing the trough east and northeast bringing a shot for a solid soaking rain event later Thursday into Friday of next week. The other implication from the blocking is that the jet stream will be displaced south of normal for awhile and the longer range temperature profile shows a period of below average temperatures for much of the first half of May.

AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MAY 4-11

weather models

This does not mean that we can’t have the odd warm day here and there. It does suggest that the average temperatures through the period will be cooler the normal. Blocks can be unstable and models can have a difficult time either building them or breaking them down. Sometimes the process can take longer on both ends.

weather models

Notice that the teleconnections forecast show the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO is forecast to go off the wall negative after May 1st so this idea is supported by weather models across the board.

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