Weather Models Show Typical Early Spring

Weather Models Show Typical Early Spring

Weather Models Show Typical Early Spring



After careful examination of the weather models this afternoon, there really isn’t much that stands out to me in the longer term. Temperatures will be trending closer to normal or perhaps even go a little below for a few days. But beyond that even though many of the long range signals are bullish for something of consequence, there remains issue of having the upper air lined up differently.

First off let’s look at the super short range. Sunday we begin to cloud over. Weather models for days have been correctly showing a developing onshore flow on Sunday which will force 2 low pressure areas to pass to our south. This is going to keep us in a northeast to east flow of raw damp chilly (but not cold) air. This probably means temperatures Monday and Tuesday not much out of the 40s in most areas.

Weather Models Show Typical Early Spring NAM MODEL MONDAY & TUESDAY

nam48 weather models Show Typical Early Spring nam72 weather Models Show Typical Early Spring

Rainfall amounts from this should be on the order of an inch or so spread out over 2 days so I don’t think there will be any serious issues. We are also not in a full moon phase so tides should be manageable. Now beyond Tuesday the Euro model has another weak low on Thursday passing to our south.

Weather Models Show Typical Early Spring Euro Model Thursday

euro120 Weather Models Show Typical Early Spring

Being that there is no cold air to speak of this could amount to another period of rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It really doesn’t look like anything other than a minor nuisance. However it does prolong the unsettled weather at least through midweek. Now beyond this period, this is what I mean about how just because the indices are pointing one way doesn’t necessarily mean anything when the atmosphere is lined up all wrong.

Weather Models Show Typical Early Spring Long Range Indices

nao Weather Models Show Typical Early Spring

The long range signals all this week coming up are pointing to a wintry look. However the upper air and surface are telling a different story. You can have all the signals screaming snowstorm but if it is just not’s just not there. Here is the upper air forecast from the Euro model for a week from now.

Euro Model Upper Air

euro192 Weather Models Show Typical Early Spring

This upper air is very dynamic and it is all WRONG for the east. The trough is along or just west of 90 west. It would need to be much further east along 80 west. This takes a strong storm to the Great Lakes and a heavy rain and warmer temperatures ahead of it in the east next weekend. The Euro model has been showing this very consistently for the last 6 model runs. There is nothing that suggests otherwise to me and I would ignore the GFS model which has a surface low offshore about 1000 miles to the east of both the Euro model and the Canadian model. To me we are just in a more typical spring pattern for the next few weeks and there is nothing out there that suggests otherwise.



FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Long Island

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For New Jersey

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Hudson Valley






Appy Award Nominee My Weather Concierge


Weather App

storm free

Don’t be without Meteorologist Joe Cioffi’s weather app. It is really a meteorologist app because you get my forecasts and my analysis and not some automated computer generated forecast based on the GFS model. This is why your app forecast changes every 6 hours. It is model driven with no human input at all. It gives you an icon, a temperature and no insight whatsoever.

It is a complete weather app to suit your forecast needs. All the weather information you need is right on your phone. Android or I-phone, use it to keep track of all the latest weather information and forecasts. This weather app is also free of advertising so you don’t have to worry about security issues with your device. An accurate forecast and no worries that your device is being compromised.

Use it in conjunction with my website and my facebook and twitter and you have complete weather coverage of all the latest weather and the long range outlook. The website has been redone and upgraded. Its easy to use and everything is archived so you can see how well Joe does or doesn’t do when it comes to forecasts and outlooks.

Just click on the google play button or the apple store button on the sidebar for my app which is on My Weather Concierge. Download the app for free. Subscribe to my forecasts on an ad free environment for just 99 cents a month.
Get my forecasts in the palm of your hand for less than the cost of a cup of Joe!