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Weather Models Shifting Jets & Tropical Storms

Weather Models Shifting Jets & Tropical Storms

Weather Models Shifting Jets & Tropical Storms

Global Models Splitting Jet Along East Coast

Complicates Weekend Outlook

One of the practical dangers of forecasting is making unequivocal statements days and days in advance in any direction. There are always things that models don’t see that suddenly become important as you enter the short range. We see this all the time in the winter and we also see them in the late summer and fall. This is especially true when it comes to tropical systems.

Several of the global weather models have been hinting at this for the last few days. This morning my weather video pointed this out as the GFS has been doing this for several runs in a row. We pointed out that it seemed like it was an outlying solution and one that frankly did not make much sense. The Canadian model joined the GFS this morning on this idea and the European now also has picked up on this.

Weather Models Shifting Jets & Tropical Storms

European Model Saturday Morning


Weather Models Shifting Jets & Tropical Storms

GFS Model Saturday Morning


The European model and GFS model are very similar here with the main difference being that the GFS has the upper lower fracturing and “cutting off” further southwest than the European Model. But the idea of the fracturing is key here as models seem to be coming around to this idea. The implication is that a tropical storm would ride northeast up the coast, offshore, and then hook back northwest or westward as it reaches our latitude.

Weather Models Shifting Jets & Tropical Storms

Euro Model Sunday Morning


Weather Models Shifting Jets & Tropical Storms

GFS Model Tuesday Morning


Above are the European model maps for Sunday and Tuesday morning. It takes what appears to be a minimal hurricane out to the northeast and then hooks it back west northwestward in response to the developing “cut off” low. The GFS is not much different except that it is further west.

So what are the implications of all these developments. First off, we are waiting to see whether this tropical depression which feels like it has been around forever, develop into a tropical storm. It appears to be organizing late this afternoon on the satellite loop below and we will wait for the verdict from the National Hurricane Center shortly.

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Second of all, regardless of whether the models are correct with this idea, we will see rough surf conditions continue probably through the weekend or until all these tropical systems get out of the way.

Third is that there may be more model noise to contend with over the next few days that could change all this. The global model solutions are a bit bizzare and are not consistent with the hurricane models. Those models have a much more straight forward track.

Weather Models Shifting Jets & Tropical Storms GFS Model Saturday Morning

We do wish to point out that there is a little more variation with this 12z series of the hurricane models than the prior runs. It could be that the global models may be on to something. We will continue to watch weather models as they play out.

If you have not seen it yet here is my weather video on the tropics from this morning.


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