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Weather Models Reverse Long Range

Weather Models Reverse Long Range

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Weather Models Reverse Long Range

The emotional levels rose to hysteria today across weather boards on Facebook Twitter & elsewhere due to the GFS model showing a pattern change with the trough shifting westward. This of course led to mass bridge jumping appointments being made by winter weather and snow lovers who apparently live and die by each model run and seeing only the obvious.

GFS MODEL ATE THIS AFTERNOON CHRISTMAS EVE

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The map above is the GFS model upper air forecast for Christmas Day from Tuesday morning’s model run. It should a deep trough setting up in the west with a big southeast ridge. Of course this led to proclamations that the winter was over (ridiculous). The model began this idea yesterday and what makes me suspicious about this is the fact that about 4 weeks ago the models did something similar cutting off a low in the southwest which pumps up the ridge in the east. This just seemed wrong to me 4 weeks ago and it seems wrong to me again. The new GFS run has a bit of a different take on all this.

NEW GFS MODEL RUN UPPER AIR CHRISTMAS EVE

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There are significant differences in how the model handles the vortex in Eastern Canada showing a much stronger presence there as is the trough in the west which is far less deep on the southern flank. The Pacific ridge is just as strong on both runs but is a bit further east. All these differences keep the Southeast ridge flatter. This creates a much colder look in the Eastern US. It also sets the stage for some overrunning events down the road in the southwest flow with cold air nearby. Granted that models will change some more in the coming days but if that trough doesn’t cut off in the Southwest you can’t get the ridge to fly northward in the East. Also the models may have been way overzealous in breaking the Canadian vortex down and shifting it to the west. I suspect that the vortex in Canada is going to be a bigger player here over time. Could I be wrong about this? Sure I could. But there is support from teleconnections that tonight’s solution has a better chance of happening than yesterday’s debacle. So for at least one run of the GFS the winter weenies can perhaps take a few steps back from the edge of the cliff and stick around for a few more days and see what happens. Oh and btw when you pull out the JMA long range model for support you are really grasping at straws.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

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