Weather Models Overnight Video Analysis
The overnight GFS run continues to show a change in the look over North America. I am more concerned with the overall idea and less concerned with any specifics because that element will change. There are 2 longer term questions. The first is whether the profile over the northern areas of the northern hemisphere across the Arctic changes. The second question is if it does change is it transient or is it a process that takes us to what will be the signature pattern for the winter in Early January I think that it may be the latter. I will say this again. The pattern realignment that may occur might not necessarily mean the kind of outcome you may have in mind. Im making no pre judgements about where this is going…or if it is going anywhere at all.
Of course all of this will now take a back seat to the next model series. The things to watch for are whether the break down in the structure across the Arctic is imminent. We also need to see if the models start to show some sort of idea of a Great Lakes system late in the Long Range. I thought the European last night which goes out only to day 10 matched up pretty well with the GFS weather model. Throughout all of this it appears that the southern half of the flow or the subtropical jet remains intact so that will be interesting to see how it plays out with anything else that is going on.
If you haven’t read it check out my Joestradamus post from earlier which breaks down the overnight GFS model.
Also with regards to the short range forecast today, here is my latest post regarding the rain over the next 2 days.
My winter weather forecast for 2015-2016