weather models

Weather Models Moving Toward Colder Pattern

Weather Models Moving Toward Colder Pattern

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Weather Models Moving Toward Colder Pattern

Overnight weather models continue the trends that have been slowly appearing during the last few days in showing a colder pattern developing later next week. The European weather model has been particularly bullish on this idea. There is stronger support today coming from ensembles and other models but it is not roaring bullish by any means, at least not yet. There will be a question of whether the cold air holds for awhile. The European and GFS weather models seem to lean in this direction. Others or more transitory. Whether it is or isn’t will depend on. As of this posting I don’t have the new NAO/AO (North Atlantic/ Arctic Oscillation) forecasts but I’m assuming that based on the European weather model and other weather models that at the very least they are both trending colder for the Eastern United States.

weather models

All weather models show the the first shot of colder air arriving later next week. The European and the Canadian however do something that the GFS does not do and that it is they both either show or at least suggest that there is a second shot right behind it.

weather models

The gfs has a colder look but it seems to take longer to bring down a second shot of cold air as the first shot pulls out. It has it still well up into Canada.

weather models

There are a couple of important model differences which I believe are key. The first is that the European shows much stronger ridging building off the Pacific Northwest Coast. This favors the colder look of the European. On the other hand the GFS has a stronger upper high building on the Atlantic side which favors the cold to a lesser degree but has perhaps a blockier look potential down the road. For snow and winter weather lovers you hope to get both! Meanwhile the ensembles seem to getting a little less insistent on the trough in the west idea (I’m not a fan of ensembles). Let’s see where this goes today. As for storminess I would suggest that it is better in my view to see the long range show less on this end and have it come into focus better inside 7 days.  I don’t take much value in storms shown beyond the 7 day time frame and neither should you.

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