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Weather Models Growing Bullish On Colder Long Range

Weather Models Growing Bullish On Colder Long Range

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Weather Models Growing Bullish On Colder Long Range

Those of you waiting for the arrival of winter may not have to wait too much longer if today’s runs of weather models are close to being correct. Both the European model and the GFS model show a cold pattern taking control beginning around the middle of next week. All of this hinges on the developing block and a storm that is forecast to form off the East Coast this weekend.

GFS MODEL MONDAY DECEMBER 4 2017

weather models

The developing low in the Canadian Maritimes is key here. As that system strengthens it weakens the ridge that attempts to build in the East. In fact models have backed off on the strength of that ridge in response to the stronger storm to the east. We also have a trough in the Rockies which is swinging east as well.  The European is a bit different in how it handles the puzzle pieces with a slightly stronger ocean storm in the Maritimes. It also handles the west a bit differently as it separates the southern end of that Rockies trough and drops it southwestward.

EUROPEAN MODEL MONDAY DECEMBER 4 2017

weather models

Carrying it further to the middle of next week both models get to a rather dynamic colder pattern in the Eastern US. The European does it a bit differently since it leaves the system in the Southwest behind while the GFS wants to kick it straight east.

GFS JET STREAM FORECAST THURSDAY DECEMBER 7TH 2017

weather models

EUROPEAN MODEL THURSDAY DECEMBER 7

weather models

Both models handle the block differently and I would caution that since models have not handled that part of the equation well at all in the last few weeks, there are likely to be more adjustments though both models are heading in a similar direction. None of these changes would come with any important precipitation be it rain or snow but that part of the equation could change as well as the longer term pattern continues to take shape.

 

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

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