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Weather Models European GFS Long Range

Weather Models European GFS Long Range

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Weather Models European GFS Long Range

Active Wet Pattern Continues

We have been watching weather models and this grueling pattern change process continue for 2 weeks now. We have seen 2 important changes. The first being that the pattern has become much more active. We are beginning to see weather systems moving through the east with more frequency. We have also seen the temperatures trend down closer to average for this time of year. It seems that what is happening is that the upper atmosphere is doing a slow grind southward as far as colder air is concerned. As each moves along it seems to be pulling the jet stream further south. There is still a lot more work to do. We also need to remember that the average highs this time of year (end of November early December) are still in the upper 40s and lows in the lower 30s. We need to see where we are a month from now when average highs and lows drop another 10 degrees.

weather models gfs240 weather models

With regards to temperatures one of the bigger changes that is occuring is that Canada is finally cooling down especially in the Western half. Both the Canadian and GFS model show this out through day 10. This is a change from the pattern we saw in October and for the first half of November when all of Canada was in a blow torch. With regards to weather systems moving along the European seems to be gearing up for another system to come out of the west.

weather models

There are 2 major differences developing this afternoon between the GFS model and the European Model regarding this system coming out from the west

weather models

 MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN WEATHER MODELS THIS WEEKEND
weather models

This creates two absolutely different outcomes on the surface maps for both models. The GFS model has nothing but high pressure everywhere while the European has a developing low in the Gulf States and a cold high beginning to press into the northeast. Weather model differences are as wide as they can be!

weather models

weather models

The outcome from here could not be further apart going forward. The European develops a major snowstorm for the Great Lakes and western parts of the Ohio Valley while the GFS has nothing!

WEATHER MODELS DIFFERENCES GROW EVEN WIDER

weather models euro168 weather models

The results for us would be another huge soaking rain event for early next week with maybe some frozen or freezing  precipitation at the start especially away from the coast (guessing here). In the meantime the Great Lakes south to Illinois and Indiana get hit with heavy snow!

So where do we go with all this? No where for the time being. Obviously the biggest model question is the system in the west. Does it get left behind like the GFS which means basically nothing happens of consequence over the weekend or does it bodily come out in one piece like the European and it creates a major storm. The European today is not that different from yesterday except that it is perhaps a little further southeast with everything on the whole it is pretty consistent. We should also again remind everyone that the European model has been notorious for making intense lows lately that have not happened. Another system comes out of the west later next week behind this one and that lines up with the GFS model. At least for this rain event Tuesday and Wednesday, the models are all pretty similar though the European seems to want to keep rain going a bit longer into Thursday morning. No doubt we have an active pattern ahead. The pattern would also imply that we will get shots of cold air with each system as it goes by and warm up ahead of the next one as the overall storm track remains a bit too far to the north at this point. This may correct itself over time as we get deeper into December. For snow lovers I would point out that lack of snowfall this time of year is pretty much standard in most winters, even in the snowiest ones. We are still very very early.

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