Weather Models Dynamic Pattern Ahead

Weather Models Dynamic Pattern Ahead

Dynamic Pattern Ahead

The pattern change process continues across North America. We continue to see large wholesale changes in the overall pattern. THIS DOES NOT MEAN COLD AND SNOWSTORMS ARE IMMINENT OR EVEN PROBABLE. It does mean that we are likely to see lots of volatility in the weather pattern as well as in weather model runs going forward.

Today’s run of teleconnections indices show that the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO will remain negative right through the next 2 weeks. There is a sharp change forecast in the East Pacific Oscillation beginning later next week. If this holds it will favor a colder flow across Canada as we head into December. What we don’t know is how this plays out from the stand point of storm development. The overall pattern has certainly gotten more active and I believe that this will continue to be the case. However models appear to be in flux regarding where the trough positions set up and what that means in terms of storm development and storm tracks.

 One of the things that we have to remember is that you can have all the indices pointing in a certain direction however if the troughs don’t set up the right way, the outcomes may not be what you expect. Weather models seem to be pointing to a strong trough in the middle of the United States setting up. If correct this would temporarily shift the centers of cold air. We still do not have some sort of established polar flow. Canada remains warmer than normal through much of next week with relatively cold air displaced southward. This set up probably means a series of storms heading west of us with cold front moving through with rain. What we don’t know at this point is whether there is other energy rotating around the large upper air storm in the upper Midwest (there probably will be) and what happens when the trough tries to shift eastward. Right now it seems that after this weekend we are going into some uncertainty for the beginning of December. To me this seems to be part of the long process of getting to what ever the ultimate winter pattern is going to be. It is never an easy process getting there. I suspect we will see more model run adjustments and changes along the way.

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