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Weather Models Blocking Troughing Battle Continues

Weather Models Blocking Troughing Battle Continues

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Weather Models Blocking Troughing Battle Continues

Last night’s weather model runs layed out 2 very distinct and opposite paths regarding the weather pattern for later this week complete with storm track implications for the East Coast. By now everyone knows about what the European model did with regards to developing a significant East Coast storm for next Sunday into Monday and by now everyone knows that the GFS did the exact opposite as it retains the general overall pattern we are in with little change. The video above illustrates in detail what last night’s model runs did and the factors in play. Today’s runs illustrate very well the issue and the two big questions at hand. The first is the blocking signature in the North Atlantic and the strength of that block  which both models have. The second and more important key is in the west and the persistent unusually deep trough that has dominated the weather scene for much of the winter with only brief interruptions.

EUROPEAN OVERNIGHT MODEL RUN FOR SUNDAY EVENING 03122017

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GFS WEATHER MODEL SUNDAY EVENING 03122017

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I have seen model differences over the years and some of them have been rather extreme but the differences last night were astounding between the two weather models. Positioning of the blocks are different. More importantly is the HUGE difference in the west. Where the European has so signs of a trough in the west and has a ridge there, the GFS weather model has a huge deep trough in the west. The same differences hold in the east only in reverse. The outcomes are essentially 2 different worlds.

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Today’s late morning model run has come a bit more in line and the GFS seems to have the upper hand. That model is virtually identical to its prior 2 runs with an extremely deep trough in the west. The European model this afternoon has partially caved to that idea though not nearly as deep. The European continues to show a system coming into the East next weekend but it is weaker, less dynamic and further north because the trough in the west creates a stronger ridge in the east and any systems that move into that can’t develop much. The result on today’s run verses last night’s run is a less deep further north low with no snow consequences except in Upstate NY and Central and Northern New England.

EUROPEAN SURFACE AND UPPER AIR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY 3/12-13/2017

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In the end the problem is a simple one. Is the trough in the west going to be as deep or deeper (more intense) than weather models are forecasting or will it be less intense and leave room for East Coast development. Weather patterns over the course of the winter rhyme and a betting person would see that the trend is your friend. The trough in the west has been persistent and dominant since December. Is there any reason to believe it is different this time?

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