Weather Models Back Off From Interior Snows
Weather Models Back Off From Interior Snows
It is not as if the models are saying no snow across the interior Northeast this weekend. However weather models except for the Canadian are handling the events in the east differently than the last few days. The key to all of this is a coastal low that is going to develop offshore. This low was going to be the block required to force the approaching Great Lakes system to dive further south and east and be very deep. Weather models except for the Canadian seem to be backing away from this idea with a weaker low offshore.
Above we have the GFS model forecast for Friday night. The top map is yesterday’s. The bottom map is today’s. The Atlantic storm is less deep on today’s run. This causes the approaching system from the west to essentially move along to the east. According to the GFS model, this would mean a simple cold front coming through late Saturday and then colder for Sunday into Monday with some lake effect snows to the north but nothing extraordinary.
The European weather model still has a rather vigorous upper feature further south than the GFS however it is also less deep than shown over the last several days.
The Canadian weather model remains the deepest and the strongest of all the models and still holds the door open for a more robust snowfall for the interior northeast and the snowbelt areas.
From a forecast standpoint, since the key to all this is the Atlantic offshore low and how it interacts with the next system, we will have to wait for a few more runs to see if the weaker look going forward is indeed the cast. The strength of this lead system is important because it will set the table for a possible future weather event later Thanksgiving week. If it is weaker, there will be less blocking and the next system could probably go left as the GFS suggests…or if it is stronger, it could force a colder look in the northeast later next week and cause the next weather system to pass to the south as per the European model.
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