Weather Models Active Stormy Pattern
Weather Models Active Stormy Pattern
I have been repeatedly stating over and over that the pattern change you get and the pattern change you want are two different things. The process is long and grinding and this one is no different. What is becoming increasingly evident is that the first change to a more active stormy pattern is going to happen faster then the change to colder. That part is going to take longer to play out. Blocking is developing and this is going to be one of the drivers in how the upper air jet stream sets up in Canada. While there will be no real cold air all week long, an onshore flow and higher pressures to the northeast will keep temperatures in check. They will be above normal but not crazy above normal.
First off with respect to blocking, the North Atlantic Oscillation will be going negative and today’s models suggest that it will stay negative longer. A negative NAO means blocking. The more negative the index the stronger the blocking. This offsets the off the wall positive East Pacific Oscillation which favors warmer than average temperatures in the east. The Pacific North America Pattern will go strongly positive next week which is supportive for storm development. Later next week the East Pacific Oscillation trend to negative which signals a colder pattern returning though I do not see it as being anything extreme. Given all these complicated views of the atmosphere it seems reasonable that the forecast will be a bit chaotic over the next week.
There will be 3 weather systems to deal with. The first on Tuesday into Wednesday will feature some rain. Thursday looks like the one uneventful day. Then a second low will pass to our south with rain late Friday into Saturday. The third looks potentially stronger with rain and wind Monday and Tuesday (roughly).
The European weather model has been leading the way on the blocking high building in South Central Canada. You can see the impact of this as it displaces the southern jet well to the south and that southern jet is quite strong. System after system will be moving along in the flow. At least the increased frequency of events will continue to dent the drought pattern. The strongest of the set will be impacting the east on Monday Tuesday with rain and wind with a deep low to our south and east.
It would appear to me that the blocking pattern will probably be stronger and last longer then the models suggest. The European shows a nor’easter threat of wind and rain here. It actually does have some snow on the back side as the low pulls away but I can’t get worked up over that because the amount of cold air is going to be essentially self produced and somewhat limited. Still this could be a significant wind and rain event. Beyond this system the European has yet another system approaching for later next week with a colder environment to play with. That for now is way out there in speculation land.
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