Weather Model Noise Continues Regarding Next Tuesday Snow Chance

Weather Model Noise Continues Regarding Next Tuesday Snow Chance

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Weather Model Noise Continues Regarding Next Tuesday Snow Chance

 We continue to struggle with the potential outcome regarding low pressure coming out of the Rockies early next week and bringing rain and snow eastward. Needless to say that it is complicated. There are many factors working against a big snow in the coastal Northeast though the odds do seem to be growing higher for inland areas. Models seem to be coming together on how the complex system comes out into the East and its interaction with cold high pressure to the north.

Weather Model Noise Continues Regarding Next Tuesday Snow Chance

At first glance at the upper air pattern next Monday night, you see a ridge in the East and a trough in the Rockies. This is not the type of upper air that is normally conducive to snow in the Eastern US particularly along the coast. The upper trough axis in the Rockies means storms track well to the west of us or at least they should as the trough lifts northward into the Northern Plains.

Weather Model Noise Continues Regarding Next Tuesday Snow Chance

Instead of lifting northeastward and cutting into Canada notice that the upper air energy does a rather unusual motion and tracks eastward across the Great Lakes rather than move northeast into Central Canada. Toward the end of the loop there is a short wave that drops southeastward in Western Canada that acts more like a kicker system and just punts the energy along to the east. The GFS is supported by the European on this as well as the Canadian model. This creates a colder profile across the East at least for a longer period of time. Surface features track in the same fashion. The primary low doesn’t strengthen much as it tracks east and creates a rather cold looking surface profile by next Tuesday morning.

Weather Model Noise Continues Regarding Next Tuesday Snow Chance

Now before snow lovers jump up and down over the colder GFS let us remember we have been down this road before. The models imply some sort of secondary low developing which the models grab on to and try to pin colder air longer that it otherwise would if the primary low were to strengthen as it heads towards the Great Lakes.  This could be a set up where you get a solid burst of snow ahead of any changeover. The idea of a secondary would favor areas just inland getting a delayed changeover and in some places perhaps no changeover at all. Since the models seem to be starting to come together on this idea, and since we are still 5 days away, lets watch and see how models handle the cold air. A stronger cutting primary would reduce snow amounts considerably. A weaker primary low with a more robust secondary would mean frozen precipitation for a longer period of time. There is plenty of time for more model adjusting. This is not normally a set up that would favor cold air wedging in longer so skepticism remains high here. Things should become clearer by the time we get to the weekend.

 

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS

Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.

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