Weather Forecasting Models: Long Range Colder Look Showing Up (Again)

Weather Forecasting Models: Long Range Colder Look Showing Up (Again)

The last couple of runs of the weather forecasting models have shown a progressively colder look beyond next week and into Thanksgiving week. Now let me be clear on a couple of things right off the bat. By colder look judging from what I’m seeing it would mean temperatures closer to normal. It does not mean a deep freeze..it does not mean that a snowstorm is in the cards. All we are doing here is looking at the developing model trends and trying to determine if (big IF) this is real and if it is sustainable. Im am not going to jump on the wholesale pattern change band wagon we see these trends continue for a few more days and we get inside the 7 day range. I will say that this does have my interest and my eyebrows are raised.

This afternoon’s GFS and European weather model runs are definitely showing a colder look developing after next weekend though they seem to get there in different ways. The GFS today in fact looks much like the European did yesterday at day 10 but the two maps you see here are both from today’s run.

euro240 gfs240

The European has a very blocky look to it with that strong blocking high over Greenland. The GFS does not have the blocky look though it does have strong ridges in the Atlantic and Pacific attempting to build across the top. The GFS has a trough in the middle. The European has much more of a split flow look to it with much weaker troughing. Both models open an alley way from Northern Canada which is a big change from the pattern we are in now It appears the models are splitting the vortex (for the time being) that has been sitting in Northern Alaska to Siberia.

This by the coincides with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Oscillation crashing from strongly positive to neutral/slightly negative in 10 days. The issue beyond 10 days is that many of ensembles go back positive on both indexes. This would lend support to the idea that this pattern shift…if it occurs…will be transitory in nature. My own feeling remains skeptical over all on both the pattern realignment and whether it is something that is going to stick around for awhile.

gem240

Now just to make this all very interesting is the Canadian model which has some evidence of blocking with a trough further west and more ridging in the east but not a crazy ridge like we are going to see early next week here in the east. The vortex in northwest Canada is still here on the Canadian. It appears a split is underway but that it takes longer to get there.

Weather forecasting models as always will take us on another adventure tonight so I will be there to hold everyone’s hand. In the meantime back to normal this weekend, then above normal for most of next week with the next chance of showers on Thursday.

Meanwhile here is the latest from FiOS1 News Meteorologist Brian Fitzgerald with regards to the weekend forecast
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