Weak System Brings A Mix of Wintry Weather Next Few Days
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Weak System Brings A Mix of Wintry Weather Next Few Days
We are waiting for the next weather system to move into the Northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast US but it will take its time moving northward. This is and will remain a weak system as the block is flattening this storm out and there isn’t a whole lot of upper support with this. Clouds are beginning to roll in from south to north and we will spend the day seeing increasing clouds (though there will be more sun north and east of NYC). Temperatures will reach into the low and mid 30s for highs. So for Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England there are no weather issues to worry about during the daytime.
SATELLITE
Regional radar covering New England is quiet and should remain so all day today. The Mid Atlantic regional radar is starting to pick up a band of rain moving northward into Virginia. Once the precipitation reaches Northern Virginia into Maryland and Southern Pennsylvania, we will see snow develop and expand northward this evening.
Let’s break down what to expect area by area. For this evening and tonight, Winter Weather Advisories are posted for most of South Central Pennsylvania, Central and Eastern Maryland, and Northern Virginia. Winter Storm Warnings are posted for Southwestern Pennsylvania and Northern West Virginia.
We will likely see additional advisories posted for the rest of South Central and Southeast Pennsylvania later today or tonight and also for areas from Northeast Pennsylvania across to Northern New Jersey into the Hudson Valley and Southern New England. The northern areas won’t see anything snow or ice wise until Tuesday morning.
What happens this evening is that snow breaks out across Maryland. Southern Pennsylvania into Southern New Jersey but after midnight the area of snow weakens and falls apart. This is due to a secondary low that develops offshore and pulls away the rich moisture with it. Up to a few inches of snow could accumulate before the snow falls apart and then goes over to light freezing rain or freezing drizzle.
Ice accretion rates from freezing rain will vary with highest amounts in the Winter Storm Warning area where over a quarter of an inch of ice accretion is likely. For areas from Northeast Pennsylvania to Southern New England the ice accretion comes later Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Now let’s move on to Tuesday where the attention shifts to Northeastern Pennsylvania, the Catskills, Hudson Valley, Southern New England and Long Island. Here is where we see snow for Tuesday into Tuesday night and then perhaps a change to freezing rain or freezing drizzle Tuesday night. The Ice map above shows the ice accretion amounts of one to two tenths of an inch. It will be enough to glaze surfaces so look for Winter Weather Advisories to go for many inland areas and they might even be needed for NYC and Long Island if temperatures struggle. Snow amounts will range from a coating to a couple of inches in most places.
The HRRR model starting Tuesday morning 7am shows how the snow and freezing rain play out. This is the dying primary low that will move east across Pennsylvania and reform offshore. The precipitation area plays out Tuesday and then gradually falls apart Tuesday night.
As far as the next system that is going to develop along the Carolina coast on Thursday, this system is much weaker and doesn’t become a major storm until it is well offshore. It also is being suppressed by the block so it will not be moving up the East Coast. We will gradually turn windy and colder late this week and into the weekend.
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