Watching The Tropics Heavy Rains Southeast Florida Gulf Coast

We continue to watch a large area of tropical moisture that continues to send occasional rounds of heavy rains northward. Showers and thunderstorms have increased in the Northwest Caribbean today near a weak disorganized low to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula. This is all being cause by a trough in the Gulf States that extends southward and we see lower than normal pressures all across the Gulf of Mexico into the the Northwest Caribbean. While conditions are not favorable for development today & Wednesday, conditions will become more conducive for development Thursday into the weekend as the low center moves northward into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico.

A broad surface low centered just east of Belize is producing a
large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern
Caribbean Sea across Cuba into the Florida peninsula.  While strong
upper-level winds and dry air aloft are expected to limit
organization during the next couple of days, some gradual
subtropical or tropical development is possible late this week while
the system moves slowly northward into the central or eastern Gulf
of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible across western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and much of
Florida during the next several days.  For more information on the
heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 800 PM EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

The National Hurricane Center has increased the possibility of development in the next 5 days to 40 percent. Regardless of development, the main issue with this will be heavy rains moving into the Gulf States, the Southeast & Florida with another 1/2 a foot or more of rain possible on top of the rain that has already fallen.

The other question in the long term is how far north this moisture gets. We have our own issues for the weekend with a front dropping down from the north and an onshore flow that develops for Sunday and Monday. We will revisit this later today and see what complications if any this will cause for us for the holiday weekend. Saturday right now looks very warm with sunshine and no rain until some showers and thunderstorms arrive Saturday night. That part of the forecast we are sure of at this point.