WASH RINSE REPEAT CYCLE LONG RANGE.
If you have the feeling that we have been here before, we have! For 7 weeks we have been locked into this pattern with a strong southeast ridge. Models in the long range try to wash it out. Instead we have the wash rinse repeat cycle in the long range just going on an on. Every single time the model attempts to wash away the southeast ridge, it simply rinses and repeats over and over. Nothing in the long range tonight suggests anything different. It keeps showing mirages of blocking on 2 or three runs in a row and it seemed that yesterday that we were inside day 10 and seeing something different gave it some meaning. However there is just too much wrong in the upper atmospheric set up in too many places to see any meaningful change in the pattern anytime soon. While I am not about to throw in the towel on the entire winter, it is becoming safe to say that barring some sort of surprise, the month of December is shot for cold or meaningful snowfall. Something very radical is going to have to happen to make that reality change.
There you have it. Run after run of weather forecast models whether it is the GFS weather forecast model or the European weather forecast model, or any model you choose from they have all at one point or another indicated a coming change only to be undone. The current long range pattern across North America is simply too strong to be undone. There is going to have to be some sort of meaningful event somewhere to alter what seems to be the semi-permanent ridge off the southeast coast of the United States. Until we see something meaningful inside the 7 day short range window, I will cast doubts on anything else happening. Prove it to me folks.