florence

Warm Tropical Air Florence Organizing Growing Stronger

WARM HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN

A FEW DOWNPOURS

FLORENCE GETTING READY TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN

The warm front that has been struggling through continues to make progress from south to north. We are socked in with clouds in most places with just a break or two of sun on a few places. That sun is basically self destructive as that causes more clouds to develop along with downpours. This basically will be the story for the rest of the week as a strong tropical Atlantic ridge builds westward across the northeast.

EASTERN SATELLITE

storm free

REGIONAL RADAR

storm free

Radars are not especially active this afternoon as we are seeing some scattered downpours around. The showers don’t last long and are briefly heavy before they move along on their merry way. Some heavier downpours and the odd thunderstorm could be in the mix into this evening before they die down overnight. Temperatures are reaching into the upper 70s to lower 80s and #badhairweather has returned again if it ever really left.

LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY

storm free

LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
storm free

The rest of the week looks about the same. Clouds with self destructive sunshine for the next 3 days. Highs will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Some scattered downpours or a thunderstorm are possible each day. Nights will be warm and humid with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Saturday and Sunday while Florence is likely dumping torrential rains across parts of the Middle Atlantic states and the Central Appalachians, high pressure over the northeast will strengthen. The weekend could see a mix of sun and clouds and the odd shower or downpour with highs in to the 80s so i may not be too bad. Then Monday and Tuesday we will turn our attention to a cold front to the west and the remnants of Florence which could bring some rains here. We will work that out in once we know for sure what Florence does.

FLORENCE PREPARING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRENGTHENING

florence

We are seeing signs that Florence is getting ready to strengthen again. The hurricane is better organized. The eye which became ragged overnight is becoming better defined. Outflow from the storm is excellent. This could be the burst of strengthening that takes Florence to a strong category 4 or even a category 5 for a short time. We don’t believe it will hold on to that extreme strength once it get near land as some wind shear and the interaction with land will likely take it back a bit. It still has a good chance to come ashore as a catergory 4 or a strong category 3 hurricane.

florence

Afternoon weather models have shifted further southwest again. The hurricane slows when it gets to the coast and both the GFS & the Euro show similar tracks. Models are continuing to show the high to the north building stronger. In addition we may have a tropical storm in the western Gulf of Mexico which would make the ridge even stronger and force the track further south. This obviously would increase the risk for Coastal South Carolina particularly in the European verifies. Below is the official hurricane forecast from the National Hurricane Center as of 11am. The official advisory follows.

florence
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 49A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
200 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

…FLORENCE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND INCREASING IN SIZE…
…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA…INLAND FLOODING TO FOLLOW…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…27.1N 66.2W
ABOUT 370 MI…595 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 845 MI…1360 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH…215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…950 MB…28.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence. Additional watches may be
required later today.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located
near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 66.2 West. Florence is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-
northwestward to northwestward motion with a slight increase in
forward speed are expected during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas through
Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South
Carolina in the hurricane watch area Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Florence is expected to begin re-
strengthening later today and continue a slow strengthening trend
for the next day or so. While some weakening is expected on
Thursday, Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous major
hurricane through landfall.

Hurricane-force winds have expanded outward and now extend up to 60
miles (95 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds have also
expanded and now extend outward up to 170 miles (280 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide…

Edisto Beach to Murrells Inlet…2-4 ft
Murrells Inlet to Cape Fear…4-6 ft
Cape Fear to Cape Lookout including The Neuse and Pamlico
River…6-12 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet…5-8 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border…3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 15 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts to 30
inches near the storm’s track over portions of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic States from late this week into early next week. This
rainfall could produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
late Thursday or Thursday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Thursday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS

Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.

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