Warm Monday Arctic Front Arrives Tuesday Rain Changing to Snow
We bounced higher today ahead now that the shot of cold air from Canada has moved offshore. Now we are on to a warmer night tonight with most lows staying above freezing and many areas will see temperatures settle in the 40s overnight. There are some clouds around but there are also some breaks of clear skies. Southwest winds overnight will help hold temperatures up and set us for another push higher in temperatures on Monday. Showers in Western Pennsylvania on the regional radar will fall apart as they move eastward.
Monday should be a dry day with sunshine giving way to arriving afternoon clouds. Highs will reach the mid to upper 50s. Then the arctic front pivots eastward as a wave of low pressure develops to our west and moves along to the northeast by early Tuesday morning. At this point some rain develops during the early morning and we see a change over to snow during the morning hours from west to east.
Heavier snow moves across upstate NY and interior New England. Once the front passes cold air comes in rather fast especially aloft and this changes the rain over to snow. There isn’t a lot of moisture to play with in a situation like this. Snow amounts will be robust in upstate NY and in Northern New England per the National Weather Service forecasts.
For much of the area we could see enough snow to coat colder surfaces. This falls during the day which helps with normal traffic issues. We are not expecting heavy snow intensity which would create issues on roadways. Most of this plays through between 9am and 3pm and then the front moves offshore. The best chances for anything other than a coating would be in elevated areas in northwest New Jersey and in the Hudson Valley north of Route 84 where some spots could pick up a quick inch or so of accumulation.
Gusty northwest winds will develop which should help dry off roadways before temperatures drop below freezing. Wednesday morning lows will be in the teens to low 20s in many areas. Wind chills will make it feel like it is at least 10 degrees colder. Skies clear out Tuesday night. Wednesday will be a very cold day for mid November with ineffective sunshine and highs just in the low to mid 30s along the coast and in warmer urban centers but many inland centers could stay below freezing or even in the 20s all day Wednesday.
We should see temperatures moderate on Thursday but an onshore flow develops into the remaining cold air as high pressure goes to our north. This will produce cloudy skies Thursday with highs just in the upper 30s and lower 40s. There might even be a few snow showers scattered around thanks to the onshore flow or a chilly drizzle along the coast is not out of the question.
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