Warm Front Thunderstorms Severe Weather & Flash Flood Risks Tonight
Warm Front Thunderstorms Severe Weather & Flash Flood Risks Tonight
The next two days are going to be busy ones in much of the Eastern US. Today, Monday 8/14/2023 we have a rather large area of severe weather risks from the Ohio and Tennessee Valley east to the Middle Atlantic coast reaching New York City and Long Island.
We have another situation where a warm front is moving from the Ohio Valley northeastward into Southern New England creating what is known as a warm sector. This sector comes with temperatures rising through the 80s to near 90 degrees or even higher in some places, dew points reaching into the 70s making for a saturated air mass.
Photo byNational Weather Service
We also have an upper trough moving across the Great Lakes which is not only supportive for thunderstorm development but also we could see areas of high wind shear and that creates opportunities for rotation to develop in some stronger thundertorms. The Storm Prediction Center indicates elevated tornado risk over a very large area from the Midwest and Ohio Valley to reaching the East Coast.
Photo bystorm prediction center
Southeastern Pennsylvania to Maryland, Delaware, and Southern New Jersey are in an area of 5 percent risk which is not a low number for this area of the country and the 2 percent risk area is extensive. All this tropical air means a very moisture loaded atmosphere so expect flash flooding risks to be elevated which the Weather Prediction Center says will cover a large portion of the Eastern US east of the Mississippi River.
Photo by weather prediction center
2 day rainfall amounts range from 1 to 2 inches which normally may not be an issue, however given that in the summertime we deal with convection, local areas could easily see double the forecast amounts. Flash flood risks are elevated from the Southern Appalachians northeast to Southeastern NY.
Photo byweather prediction center
Satellite and radars show areas of rain and thunderstorms moving east today and spreading northward up the East Coast. This satellite loop shows lightning strikes in the flashing areas of yellow red and green Click on the link to the National Weather Service satellite and radar loops to see enlarged updated images.
SATELLITE WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES
WEATHER RADAR
Photo byNational Weather Service Radar
On the radar loop, yellow boxes indicate severe thunderstorm warnings while red boxes indicate tornado warnings. Green boxes indicate flash flood warnings and brownish boxes along the coast and offshore are special marine warnings. We will be watching satellites and radars through out the day and into tonight as this system moves eastward. Bear in mind that while the area of geographic risk is large, it doesn’t necessarily mean that everyone will see thunderstorms and severe weather. It is important to simply be aware that risks are elevated due to supportive atmospheric conditions and one should bear that in mind as you go about your day.
Photo bystorm prediction center
This cold front will be heading eastward Tuesday and depending on the timing we could see severe weather risk again from Georgia to Southern New England with the highest risk areas from Southern New Jersey to Northeastern North Carolina, This also comes with elevated tornado risk for Southern New England and Long Island.
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Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.
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