Very Cold Friday Weekend Winter Storm Risks Continue For Sunday Night into Early Tuesday

Very Cold Friday Weekend Winter Storm Risks

Continue For Sunday Night into Early Tuesday

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Very Cold Friday Weekend Winter Storm Risks Continue For Sunday Night into Early Tuesday

Many of you thought yesterday was cold. Well guess what? Today it will be even colder. Temperatures will top out in the upper teens to mid 20s. Wind chills will be down in the single digits to near zero thanks to northwest winds gusting 20 to 30 mph at times. Sunshine will be completely ineffective in the coldest air mass of the winter season so far. Wind advisories are up for portions of Northern New Jersey to Southern New England and Long Island for gusts to 40 mph at times today.

SATELLITE

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The western edge of a major ocean storm is to the east but its circulation extends back inland and it is interacting with a strong high to produce a tight pressure gradient. Winds will continue into Saturday morning. There might be a few passing clouds today and even a brief snow shower is possible though the radars are for the most part quiet.

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Tonight will be the coldest night of the winter. Clear skies, gusty winds and lows down in the lower teens and single digits in many areas; wind chills will be near or below zero overnight into Saturday morning.

Saturday is another day of ineffective sunshine with just in the 20s. Another very cold night of single digits and teens follows Saturday night into Sunday morning. Sunday brings increasing clouds with highs in the 20s inland and upper 20s to near or just over 30 in the warmest spots coast and south.

Low pressure will move across the lower Ohio Valley Sunday and weaken while a secondary develops in North Carolina and heads to a position just off the Delaware coast on Monday. The split in the flow and the strong upper feature cutting off means that this will be slow moving. Lots of questions remain of course at this stage. Except for the European model which had a hiccup last night and went suppressed and further south, all the others are very close in their outlooks with this storm system. Snow develops Sunday in Virginal and it reaches Southern Pennsylvania and Southern New Jersey Sunday afternoon and then pushes northward reaching NYC in the early morning hours before daybreak Monday. It then pushes further north into Southern New England during Monday.

The Weather Prediction Center’s probability of at least 2 or 3 remains bullish from the Northern Mid Atlantic to Southern New England which includes all the major cities along the I-95 Corridor. It is still to early for numbers. I will wait to see if the European goes back to a more northern solution later today and I will put out some early numbers on Saturday. Some areas along the immediate coast could have mixing issues and we will work that out over the weekend.

The key to this forecast will be the developing upper low and the track. Typically the heaviest snow falls in a band about 50-150 miles to the northwest of the upper low track putting the I-95 corridor in line for heavy snow but that track is very important here and so is the strength of the upper low. This system is also going to be a problem along the coast regarding coastal flooding and beach erosion are possibilities due to the long fetch from the northeast beginning Sunday. Thankfully we are coming off the peak tides of the full moon so that helps to mitigate the flooding potential somewhat. We have plenty of time to watch this evolve further. In the meantime stay warm!

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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS

Please note that with regards to any severe weather,  tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.