Two Storm European Solution

Two Storm European Solution

Two Storm European Solution


I got up early this morning because I wanted to at least get to see some of the snow outside which is coming down nicely here. Then I said to myself let’s look at the next one. I just new deep down inside that it was going to bring that first storm back westward. Lo and behold that is exactly what we have as the European is back to the two storm solution. In fact the first low is so far left on the European that if you adjust for all the errors of recent storms swinging left at the last minute, Monday into Wednesday is going to be just fascinating! This is Monday’s daytime snowfall forecast from the European from the first storm (I’m not counting today). This is getting too confusing!

Two Storm European Solution Snowfall Forecast Map For Monday

EUROSNOW Two Storm European Solution

Remember folks that we have a good 96 hours of backing to the west to consider. All the models show this beginning with the first hints from the GFS last night and now in the mid morning run that just came out you can see how it does it.

Two Storm European Solution European & GFS Surface Monday Evening

euro96 Two Storm European Solution gfs90 Two Storm European Solution

What exactly is happening here? When we look at the upper air map for Monday evening you can something you don’t often see and that is a deep vortex like upper low in the Ohio Valley. It is “cut off” from the main upper air jet stream.  It becomes the dominant driver as the first ocean storm rotates around it and it is effectively drawn in closer.

Two Storm European Solution European Model Upper Air Monday Evening

euro96 Two Storm European Solution


From a forecast standpoint here there are 2 issues. First there is the issue of “room” and having two storms so close together. The second is that the first storm essentially robs the atmosphere of moisture leaving less for the second low that develops here to work on. The outcome is a dynamic upper air that does not necessarily translate into an overly dynamic second storm that develops.

Two Storm European Solution European Surface and Upper Air Tuesday Evening

euro120 Two Storm European SolutionSo what do we do from a forecast standpoint? We do what we always do in situations like this. Punt and wait! If the first low is any further left than we can consider an increasing snow threat for Monday especially for Long Island to Southern New England. One other thing to consider is what happens if the first storm lifting up is a little slower. This might force the second low even further south. Obviously we are long from done figuring out the specific forecast but suffice to say that this is going to be fascinating to see how it all plays.









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