Tropics Quiet & Hostile For Development Until Late Week

Tropics Quiet & Hostile For Development Until Late Week

Tropics Quiet & Hostile For Development Until Late Week

For the first time in a month and a half we aren’t watching any systems in the tropics. We have just come off one of the more intense active periods of hurricane development in many years so a breather is in order. While a look at the visible satellite loop below shows lots of disturbed weather in the tropics and subtropics, there has been a distinct change in the upper air pattern that makes tropical storm development unlikely for the next 5 days or so.

storm free

The water vapor loop shows a parade of cold upper air storms swirling at the high levels of the atmosphere. This creates strong wind shear conditions across the tropics which is hostile for tropical cylones. There are 3 distinct upper lows in play at the moment and you can see the swirling around. One is in the Eastern Atlantic. Another is in the Northeast Caribbean and a third in the Gulf of Mexico. During the period of peak activity these upper lows are either weak or non existent.

storm free

All the global models however do agree that pressures across the Northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico will be low later this week and especially late this week and into the weekend. Upper air conditions in this area are forecast to become more favorable for development and the European model seems to be the most bullish on the possibility of some tropical development next weekend. 2 other systems in the Subtropical Atlantic are also being indicated with the one south of Bermuda probably have a chance to develop into something.

EUROPEAN MODEL SURFACE MAP SATURDAY OCTOBER 7 2017

tropics

The system in the Northwest Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba is the kind that will produce some very heavy rains but at least from the model’s view at this stage it is a very broad low pressure area and it is the kind that will probably develop slowly. Where it goes from here will depend on upper air developments to the north and whether the jet stream across the US drops far enough south to pick it up. The GFS model shows the same idea but it is much weaker and doesn’t do much with this. This is different from the systems that became Harvey, Irma, Jose, & Maria as those systems had their origins from the deep tropics in the Atlantic. The tropical season for the Cabo Verde systems is just about over with at this point so development shifts closer to home which is typical of where we are in the calendar. We will monitor how weather models deal with this in the week ahead.

 

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

 

 

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