Tropics May Be Getting Ready to Rev Up
The hurricane season so far is actually running about average in terms of number of named storms. We’ve had 3 named storms so far with Chantal the most recent one in the middle of the Atlantic. Chantal actually formed out of a frontal wave that developed off the East Coast in an old frontal boundary. The important take away about this is perhaps we are going to see an abundance of home grown tropical cyclones developing this season instead of the Cabo Verde type cyclones that form well out in the tropical Atlantic and march all the way across. That part of the Atlantic is quiet at the moment. However we do have some disturbed weather that has developed east of Florida that has caught our eye.
This evening’s satellite shows a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms sitting in the Bahamas. We also are about to have another stalled frontal boundary along and just off the Southeast Coast of the US this weekend and early next week. That is our cold front that is moving through our area tonight which is going to stall out to the south over the weekend. Sometimes you can get tropical systems to develop on decaying frontal boundaries.
Today’s European model shows the dilemma over the weekend with the stalled frontal boundary off the Southeast Coast. The European seems to be bullish on developing a surface low off the Florida Coast. What could also happen is that a wave developing on the frontal boundary winds up absorbing the tropical moisture and you wind up with a wave that is just a plain old non tropical system that gets ejected to the northeast. Such is the Gfs in how it handles this system off the coast.
Upper air winds off the Southeast coast of the US actually will be somewhat favorable for development over the weekend with winds in the upper atmosphere on the light side which is what tropical systems like to see.
We have also seen some disturbed weather develop in the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon with a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the Central and Western Gulf. This could be just tropical moisture that is responding to daytime heating so we need to see if this area persists over the weekend. Pressures in the Gulf of Mexico are not all that high to begin with so lets see if this stuff is still around over the next few days and then we will attempt to figure out what it all means. I would not be at all shocked to see the system off the Southeast US coast get going over the weekend. All of this is in the speculative stage at the moment and there is nothing that suggests we have any kind of threat to worry about. It is just weather folks watching the tropics.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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