Tropical Weather Forecast: Tropical Storm Kate: Satellite Video & Analysis
The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Tropical Depression 12 to Tropical Storm Kate as we indicated earlier that they would. Satellite pictures in the last few hours show the core of the tropical storm is getting better defined and that there is a rather strong inflow pattern that has developed. Latest satellite and weather video analysis.
...KATE STRENGTHENS SOME MORE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 75.3W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ENE OF CAT ISLAND ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * Northwestern Bahamas
With regards to the weather pattern along the east coast, it is pretty clear that Kate will stay offshore as a separate entity for awhile as it makes its way north and then eventually northeastward. Low pressure is going to develop along the mid Atlantic coast and eventually absorb this system as that low pulls away Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Take a look at Today’s NAM model which brings us a pretty good shot of rain during Tuesday from low pressure that is developing along the coast. By this model you can barely see where Tropical Storm Kate is as it gets drawn northeastward and just ahead of the offshore cold front that extends southward from the low center. By Wednesday morning on the NAM you can’t even find Kate at all as it gets completely absorbed by the developing low that will be to the east of Cape Cod by Wednesday morning. There is no threat to the Untied States or for Bermuda for that matter as Kate will pass well west of the island during Tuesday.
It should be noted that tropical storms in November are not unusual events as they tend to happen every other season. This is the seasons 11th tropical storm which places the total storm count as a little above the long term average. However this season has been known for the short survival rates of these storms due to a strong wind shear pattern caused by El Nino. There is still time for perhaps one more down the road but if it happens it is likely to form in the Northwest Caribbean which is the area that is most favored this time of year.