tropical wave

Tropical Wave Not Well Organized Moving West

Tropical Wave Not Well Organized Moving West

Tropical Wave Not Well Organized Moving West

The satellite loops this afternoon and evening show that the tropical wave southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has not gotten better organized. The system is elongated with two distinct areas of convection. The system is developed into a tropical storm by most of the weather models with the European being a standout exception. The GFS which has been aggressive with development has backed off from yesterday’s view of a tropical storm developing over the weekend. This is no surprise really as we continue to see the usual suspects being spun up out of control. This is why getting worked up over one or 2 runs is really silly when it comes to specifics

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The upper air across the tropical Atlantic is going to be dominated by a strengthening upper high over Bermuda. and it will build westward to the Southeast US. The strength of that ridge is key to any track. The stronger the ridge the further west this system gets…also the further south it tracks. Hurricane models are reflecting the strength of that building ridge as tracks shift further south late this afternoon.

tropical wave

There is no need to review the late afternoon GFS since the specifics of the track and the strength being shown are a waste of time until we actually have a system to deal with. As far as the tropical wave in the Central Caribbean is concerned conditions will become more favorable when this system reaches the NW Caribbean or the Southwest Gulf of Mexico.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

 

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