tropical wave

Tropical Wave Heads Westward In Atlantic

Tropical Wave Heads Westward In Atlantic

Tropical Wave Heads Westward In Atlantic

With regards to the tropical wave in the Central Tropical Atlantic it continues to experience hostile conditions and though thunderstorms are flaring up a bit today, strong upper level winds and dry air to the northwest (brownish area on the water vapor loop) are limiting it. The strong upper low that just east of the Bahamas is the driver here and this wave will remain under hostile conditions for the next 2 days or so. However that is going to be changing at the end of the week and the weekend.

You can see the perspective on the loop below with the wave out in the Atlantic, clouds and showers in the Eastern Bahamas, and Tropical Storm Franklin moving into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico. The strong upper low in the Atlantic is forecast to drop southwestward into the Caribbean. Once that happens strong upper winds in the Atlantic will relax and conditions will grow more favorable for development. This will begin to happen once the Atlantic wave goes west of 60 degrees west.

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The European continues to grow more bullish on the prospects of development of this wave once it nears the Eastern Bahamas. In fact both the European and the Canadian develop this into a hurricane early next week off the Southeast coast of the United States. However before everyone gets worked up about this let me point out that the upper air winds over the Eastern United States will prevent this system from moving up the east coast. It may get close to the Southeast coast but the upper trough swinging around will pick this up and shoot it out to the northeast and out to sea.

tropical wave

So unless the jet stream on the models is completely different (and that doesn’t seem likely) there is no threat for a Tropical Storm along the east coast.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

 

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