Tropical Subtropical Storm Development Possible Northeast Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Subtropical Storm Development Possible
Northeast Gulf of Mexico
Satellite pictures overnight and this morning don’t show much change in the disturbed weather that is over Florida and the surrounding coastal waters. There is a broad upper trough developing in the lower Mississippi Valley that extends southward into the Gulf of Mexico. A weak surface low is trying to form on the edge of the cloud mass in the Eastern Gulf.
Here is the National Hurricane Center’s latest outlook issued this morning.
A large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending from the eastern Gulf of Mexico across much of the Florida Peninsula is associated with a broad surface low pressure area interacting with an upper-level low. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics while it moves slowly northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system will enhance rainfall across portions of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast during the next few days. For more information on this system, please see products issued by your local weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 4 PM EDT today.
Regardless of development the moisture from this system will start spreading northward into the Southeast US and eventually that moisture will likely make its way here later this week. Tropical or Subtropical storms in the Atlantic Basin are unusual in May but certainly not unheard of. In fact we have see a tropical storm in May form last year. The Gulf of Mexico is one of the few places where the water temperatures are supportive for such development if upper air conditions are favorable. Right now the National Hurricane Center is in watch and see model. Weather models are picking up on this as the NAM shows today.
The NAM does show a developing low level circulation however it is rather broad and the upper air jet stream is likely to lift this northward and inland by Tuesday night. In the meantime bands of heavy rain in Florida and parts of the Southeast are likely to continue.
This moisture does have a good chance of bringing more rain here later this week as JOESTRADAMUS discusses in his Monday midday local weather post.